There must be something particularly irritating about numbers when they refuse to cooperate with a political narrative. Just when the chorus of economic doomsters was getting comfortable, Moody’s Ratings has delivered an inconvenient little message: Bharat’s economy is not only growing, it is showing enough resilience for the agency to raise its FY2026-27 growth forecast from 6 per cent to 7 per cent. Moody’s also expects Bharat to remain the fastest-growing economy among the G20. That must be quite a headache for the “Naaraz Fufajis” — Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s teasing description for the perpetually aggrieved brigade. The Opposition, particularly the Congress, has spent considerable political energy questioning the credibility of the growth story. After the 7.8 per cent GDP growth recorded in the April-June quarter, Congress leaders dismissed the headline number as a distorted picture and questioned whether GDP growth was translating into jobs, incomes and improved household conditions. Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh even cited a former Finance Secretary’s alternative interpretation of the data. Fair enough. Governments must be questioned. GDP alone cannot measure every aspect of an economy. But here comes the inconvenient part: the international economic evidence is not behaving like a dead economy. Moody’s says real GDP growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent year-on-year in the first six months of calendar 2026, compared with 7.3 per cent in calendar 2025. It attributes the momentum to stronger private consumption, robust gross fixed capital formation, continued public infrastructure spending, a likely revival in private investment and sustained strength in services. The June quarter itself recorded 7.8 per cent growth, above the 7 per cent estimate cited by the RBI. Reuters reported that investment and manufacturing activity helped drive the performance, even as some sectors remained weaker. So what exactly is keeping the economy moving? Not political speeches. Not television debates. Not government advertising. It is consumption, investment, infrastructure creation, services, manufacturing and domestic demand — precisely the combination that gives an economy shock absorbers when the outside world becomes increasingly hostile.
And Bharat has certainly had its share of shocks. The Middle East conflict has pushed up energy risks. Global trade remains uncertain. Crude prices can quickly become a problem for an oil-importing economy. Yet Moody’s says Bharat’s diversified crude-import sources, substantial foreign-exchange reserves and strong domestic demand provide important buffers. That does not mean everything is rosy. Moody’s has warned that prolonged conflict and elevated energy prices could push inflation above its 4.8 per cent projection for FY2026-27. El Niño could add food-price pressures. Higher energy and fertiliser costs, weaker external demand and softer remittances from the Middle East could widen the current-account deficit. Moody’s has also flagged Bharat’s high debt burden and weak debt affordability. These are serious risks — and precisely why the Moody’s assessment matters. It is not a government press release. It is an external assessment that has actually raised its growth forecast while simultaneously identifying the vulnerabilities. There is another number that deserves attention. On September 2, Japan Credit Rating Agency upgraded Bharat’s sovereign rating to A-/Stable, moving it up from BBB+; its official rating record confirms the upgrade. S&P, meanwhile, reaffirmed Bharat’s sovereign rating with a stable outlook in August, citing policy stability and infrastructure investment while continuing to flag fiscal and debt-related weaknesses. In other words, the story is neither “everything is perfect” nor “the economy is dead”. It is considerably more complicated — and considerably more interesting. The real test for Bharat is whether this growth becomes broader, creates productive employment, raises household incomes and survives external shocks. Those questions are legitimate and must not be brushed aside. But there is an equally legitimate question for the permanent pessimists: If the economy is supposedly collapsing, why do the growth numbers, investment momentum, external assessments and sovereign-rating trajectory keep refusing to collapse with it? Perhaps the Naaraz Fufajis need to take a closer look at the dashboard. The engine is running. And, rather annoyingly for those predicting its death, it is gathering speed.
