Thiruvananthapuram: Pollsters in Kerala remain divided over the likely outcome of the upcoming Assembly elections, with projections split between a return of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and an advantage for the United Democratic Front (UDF).
Among the surveys, Mathrubhoomi’s Mathrubhumi-Core poll stands out for projecting a clear edge for the LDF. It estimates the ruling front could secure between 66 and 78 seats, while the UDF is projected to win between 62 and 72 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win around two seats.
However, several surveys have not disclosed detailed methodologies or sample sizes, raising questions about the reliability of their projections. Most pollsters have also refrained from making definitive predictions, instead offering broad seat ranges that reflect the uncertainty surrounding the contest.
In contrast, Rajneet Pulse has projected a strong victory for the UDF, giving it as many as 94 seats, with the LDF at 43 and the NDA at two. This sharp divergence from other estimates underscores the unpredictability of the electoral landscape.
Recent electoral trends help explain the tight race. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the UDF performed strongly, leading in 111 Assembly segments, compared to the LDF’s 18 and the NDA’s 11. However, the momentum appeared to shift after the 2025 local self-government elections, where post-poll estimates suggested the LDF had regained ground.
While the UDF is seen retaining some advantage from its Lok Sabha performance, the LDF’s recovery at the grassroots level and the incumbency factor have kept it firmly in contention.
The NDA, though limited in terms of projected seats, could still play a crucial role in closely contested constituencies, with its vote share potentially influencing outcomes by splitting or consolidating votes.
