New Delhi: The Indian economy, largely driven by consumption, has the potential to grow over 7 per cent annually even if crude oil costs USD 90-100 per barrel, industry body Assocham said on Wednesday.
India’s resilience to high energy costs has increased significantly over the years, as the country has absorbed severe oil shocks while growth has remained strong, it said.
Based on its analysis, the industry body said that India has demonstrated its ability to manage high energy prices without compromising its economic growth trajectory.
During 2011–14, when crude prices remained above USD 100 per barrel, India’s GDP growth ranged between 5.2 per cent and 6.4 per cent. In contrast, the sharp contraction of -5.78 per cent in 2020-21 occurred when oil prices were low, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic rather than energy costs.
The report said, “India has built macroeconomic resilience through foreign exchange reserves, trade diversification, fiscal policy tools and diversified revenue streams,” enabling it to absorb crude price shocks without derailing growth.
Growth projections remain in line with this trend. The Reserve Bank of India has pegged GDP growth at 6.9 per cent for 2026-27, while Assocham expects it to exceed 7 per cent, supported by consumption demand, exports and rising capital investment.
On inflation, the outlook remains stable. Consumer price inflation edged up to 3.40 per cent in March 2026 from 3.21 per cent in February, with the increase lower than that seen in major advanced economies. The report noted, “India’s inflation management has remained strong amid global commodity volatility.”
Assocham said post-pandemic reforms, including production-linked incentive schemes and easing of compliance norms, have strengthened economic fundamentals. It expects the policy repo rate to remain stable at 5–5.25 per cent, supporting growth.
Despite continued dependence on crude imports, the report said India’s structural strengths position it to navigate global uncertainties without significant disruption to its growth trajectory.
