MS Shanker
Barely days after AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) visited the BJP’s state headquarters in Chennai and shared the stage with Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the alliance between the two parties has taken a confusing turn. Shah’s statement confirming the revival of the BJP-AIADMK alliance for the upcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly elections was seen as a green light for a broader partnership. However, EPS’s latest remarks have thrown cold water on any assumptions of a power-sharing arrangement.
Addressing the media on Wednesday, EPS categorically stated that there will be no coalition government in Tamil Nadu, even if the alliance secures a majority in 2026. “He [Shah] didn’t say it would be a coalition government. You are misinterpreting and trying to play tricks,” he told reporters, dismissing speculation that AIADMK would cede ministerial berths to the BJP.
This firm stand appears to be aimed at calming internal dissent. Some AIADMK leaders are wary of alienating their minority vote base by being seen as too closely aligned with the BJP. EPS’s statement seems designed to project strength and autonomy while still leveraging the BJP’s national appeal and electoral machinery.
But the optics remain murky. Is it politically viable for a pre-poll alliance to go into an election with a declared “no sharing of power” clause? Does it not defeat the very logic of coalition politics, where power-sharing is often the glue holding disparate partners together?
Behind the scenes, this arrangement may not be as spontaneous as EPS suggests. The AIADMK leader’s recent trip to New Delhi, where he met top BJP brass, reportedly laid the groundwork for this tactical tie-up. While Shah’s announcement was interpreted as the BJP re-entering Tamil Nadu’s political fray through the AIADMK, EPS appears determined to draw boundaries early on. The alliance, he insists, is limited to the ballot box—not to the government that follows.
Interestingly, the BJP has not publicly objected to EPS’s assertion. A senior party leader commented, “Tamil Nadu has never had a coalition government with power-sharing. EPS’s remarks were not unexpected.” Another insider framed the alliance as “tactical and arithmetic, not emotional.”
And therein lies the core logic. The BJP expects AIADMK to help it perform better in urban constituencies like Coimbatore, Chennai’s T. Nagar, and Kanyakumari—areas where it has struggled to break through. AIADMK, in turn, hopes to benefit from the BJP’s organisational muscle and vote bank in western and southern Tamil Nadu. It’s a classic case of vote transferability and mutual convenience.
Still, within the AIADMK, skepticism runs deep. “Only arithmetically it works; the chemistry is still broken,” a former AIADMK minister admitted. Many in the party fear the BJP’s embrace could eventually suffocate the AIADMK—much like it did with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) in Bihar, the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, and the JD(S) in Karnataka.
Some party veterans are already warning of a slow political demise. “Whether we win or not, it won’t survive long. The Shah-EPS meeting may be the beginning of the end,” one leader said. The unease stems from a long-standing fear among regional parties: that alliances with the BJP often start as tactical moves and end with political absorption or irrelevance.
Despite the undercurrents, EPS remains defiant in public. “We have been making efforts to bring together all those keen on dislodging the DMK. As a first step, the BJP has come to us,” he said, adding that more parties were expected to join their front.
In effect, EPS is trying to walk a tightrope—ally with the BJP to oust the DMK, but keep enough distance to retain AIADMK’s independent identity. Whether this balancing act holds until the 2026 elections remains to be seen. For now, the alliance looks more like a marriage of math than minds—and one where both partners seem to be guarding their exits.
