China-Japan tensions, regional power balance and India’s strategic challenges
The Taiwan issue has now become central to Japan’s security strategy and foreign policy, straining China-Japan relations and directly impacting India’s Indo-Pacific interests.
The Taiwan issue is at the center of growing tensions between Japan and China, which has reshaped the balance of power in the entire Indo-Pacific region. Due to geographical proximity, maritime interests, and historical sensitivities, Japan views Taiwan’s stability as an extension of its own national security interests. China’s intensification of military activities around Taiwan in recent years—whether through airspace violations, missile tests, or large-scale naval exercises—has profoundly altered Japan’s threat perception. The 2022 landing of Chinese missiles in Japan’s exclusive economic zone was a clear indication that the Taiwan crisis directly impacts Japan’s geopolitical environment.
This is why Japan has made unprecedented changes to its security strategy. Despite decades of a pacifist approach, it has decided to double defense spending to 2% of GDP. Long-dormant military infrastructure is being revitalized, new missile deployments are being established on the southwestern islands, and joint operational capabilities with the United States have been significantly enhanced. Japan understands that if a conflict erupts in Taiwan, Chinese aggression could escalate toward the Senkaku Islands and Japanese waters. Therefore, its entire security vision is now deeply intertwined with the stability of the Taiwan Strait.
This shift is also evident in Japan’s foreign policy. While Japan previously refrained from speaking openly on the Taiwan issue, it now repeatedly emphasizes the importance of “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” on international platforms. Its diplomatic stance toward China has become much tougher. Japan’s summoning of the Chinese ambassador following China’s threats over the Japanese Prime Minister’s remarks on Taiwan is emblematic of this shift. Furthermore, Japan is developing new security structures with the Quad, ASEAN countries, and European partners to counter China’s growing military capabilities.
This entire scenario is extremely important for India. Both India and Japan are concerned about China’s aggressive tendencies, so security cooperation between the two countries is naturally deepening. The Quad has grown in strategic importance, and maritime surveillance, naval exercises, and technical cooperation in the Indo-Pacific have accelerated. Japan’s military modernization opens new opportunities for India in the areas of defense industry, technology transfer, and maritime security.
But the challenges are also not without. India desires to maintain stable relations with China, as peace in the border region and economic cooperation are its direct requirements. However, the escalation of China-Japan tensions further complicates the India-China balance. If India shows greater closeness with Japan and the United States, China could increase pressure on the border. Another major concern relates to any military crisis in the Taiwan Strait. This sea route is vital for India; any instability there would severely impact energy imports, trade, electronic chip supplies, and overall maritime transport. This could jeopardize both India’s economic growth and security.
The third challenge is America’s “strategic ambiguity.” The US has never clearly stated whether it would intervene militarily in the event of an attack on Taiwan. This uncertainty puts the entire region in a state of dilemma. Japan and Taiwan are not only concerned, but this question is also important for India, because the Quad’s true utility depends on the extent to which the US plays a decisive role. If the US remains uncertain, China may be encouraged to take more aggressive steps in the region, which will also impact India’s security balance.
Amidst these complexities, the opportunities for India are equally significant. Japan’s renewed engagement could provide new direction to defense industry cooperation, maritime technology, submarine capabilities, and joint military exercises. Together, India and Japan can take concrete steps toward a stable and rules-based Indo-Pacific. Diversification of trade routes will also be essential for India to reduce its excessive dependence on the Taiwan Strait.
Finally, the Taiwan crisis has made it clear that the future of the Indo-Pacific can no longer be determined by old equations. Japan is redefining its security strategy, China continues to expand its power, and the United States is partially rebalancing its role. In this scenario, India must adopt a highly balanced, astute, and multi-layered diplomacy—one that neither creates unnecessary conflict with China nor slows down growing cooperation with Japan, the United States, and other partners.
The changing dynamics of the Indo-Pacific pose both a challenge and an opportunity for India. This is a time for India’s strategic maturity, economic expansion, and decisive foreign policy. If India balances all these aspects, it will not only influence the regional balance of power but will also become a key determinant of the Indo-Pacific’s future in the years to come.
