The Union government withdrew the recently revised Seismic Zoning Map of India, which provides earthquake design codes for buildings and other infrastructure projects across the country’s seismic zones. This map was prepared based on seismic data accrued from state-of-the-art digital instruments over the last three decades.
The 1993 Latur earthquake, which claimed more than 10,000 human lives, was the watershed moment that brought a paradigm shift in earthquake monitoring in the country. Post-Latur, the government undertook a mission-mode drive to overhaul seismic networks, transitioning from the age-old analog monitoring systems of the British era to digital instruments. This was a conscious and high-priority push by the government that led to a radical transformation in high-quality seismic data acquisition, matching international standards.
Under a recent government initiative, a revised Seismic Zoning Map of India was prepared using very high-quality seismic data from these networks operated by various organisations in the country. This map was introduced by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) in November 2025 and withdrawn within three months. All the hard work, unending meetings, months of data analysis, and hours of discussions involving experts comprising scientists, professors, and engineers from IITs and other institutions went down the drain with a single stroke of the pen, withdrawing the revised map.
Reasons could be anything, varying from the pressures of ongoing projects, including metro works in cities, the need to meet time targets, or financial constraints. However, a relook into the pros and cons of this decision would be in the right direction as it involves the lives of people, especially those in earthquake-prone Himalayan and adjoining areas, Northeast India, and other major townships and cities elsewhere in the country.
I recollect with a lot of sadness how the three farm laws brought in 2021 to benefit small farmers had to be repealed by the government under pressure from rich farmers who constitute less than 2% of the farming community in the country. These laws would have transformed the lives of marginal farmers forever and would have fulfilled the government’s promise to double their incomes. But regrettably, the government panicked and buckled under pressure for reasons best known to it and missed the bus.
But the case of rolling back an updated Seismic Zoning Map may have serious safety concerns. The map depicted realistic earthquake disaster scenarios based on sound scientific methodology and suggested design codes for safer living. We need to understand that earthquakes are a low-probability but high-risk phenomenon.
To understand this better, we take insurance cover for certain risks like personal or car accidents, air travel, theft, residential fires, etc., that may not happen at all, may happen once, or in rare cases, multiple times in one’s lifetime. Against these risks, paying a small premium is a good bargain to safeguard oneself if such an eventuality does occur. Though insurance cover cannot prevent a risk, it definitely helps in minimising the impact.
In earthquake disaster parlance, the Seismic Zoning Map of India is like an insurance cover with little additional cost for the government and other stakeholders while developing infrastructure in earthquake-prone and adjoining regions. Though it may not prevent earthquake disasters in totality, it can minimise the impact in terms of loss of human lives and reduce the economic cost if proper rules are followed.
A popular adage, “earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do,” emphasises the need for stricter building codes and earthquake-resistant design during construction, as fatalities occur due to structural collapse of the built environment. If seismic design codes for different zones recommended in the zoning map are adhered to strictly, earthquake-related deaths and economic costs could be reduced substantially in the event of a major earthquake striking the country.
Since 1990, India has witnessed several earthquake disasters — 1991 Uttarkashi, 1997 Jabalpur, 1999 Chamoli, 2001 Bhuj, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, 2005 Kashmir, 2009 Andaman Islands, 2011 Sikkim, and another 25 moderate-to-severe earthquakes. More than 50,000 human lives have been lost in these disasters, and economic losses have crossed thousands of crores of rupees. The primary cause of such high mortality has been building collapses, as people were trapped indoors in their homes.
In countries where structures are not designed as per seismic codes, the loss of lives due to building collapses is very high. The example of the Haiti earthquake of magnitude 7 in 2010 is another case that killed more than 300,000 people. Loss of life due to earthquakes is most prominent in developing countries — be it Turkey, Iran, Nepal or Indonesia — unlike in the developed world, where structures are built as per seismic design codes.
A cursory look at earthquake disasters of similar or even higher magnitudes in Japan or the US shows minimal loss of life, as structures in these countries adhere strictly to prescribed seismic codes. Since the 1980s, all buildings in Japan have been constructed as per their seismic hazard maps and corresponding seismic codes. The magnitude 9 earthquake in March 2011 in Japan swayed tall buildings and skyscrapers in Tokyo and other major cities, but none collapsed. Most of the people lost their lives due to the devastating tsunami generated by this earthquake.
Earlier, the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan also killed several people in collapsed buildings constructed before the 1980s, when seismic codes were not available.
To cut a long story short, rolling back the revised Seismic Zoning Map of India is a regressive step and requires rethinking on the part of the government; otherwise, it may have serious consequences if a major earthquake occurs. This decision will also demoralise scientists, professors, and engineers who were involved in the preparation of this scientifically sound zoning map.
The government may have its reasons for the rollback, but these need to be spelled out clearly to avoid confusion within the scientific community. Every time a natural disaster occurs in India, experts are called upon to suggest remedies and give their opinions, which remain confined to reports. That is why, after every disaster, old reports by expert committees surface, pointing to non-adherence to recommendations, and with time, everything is forgotten until the next disaster strikes and the story repeats.
The recent examples of Joshimath sinking in 2022–23 and the Wayanad landslides due to torrential rains in 2024 illustrate this pattern. This needs to change.
Infrastructural development, especially in border areas, is a necessity arising out of security concerns. But while doing so, expert advice on earthquake hazard mitigation must go hand in hand and should not be overlooked or compromised so that catastrophic losses are prevented and long-term sustainability ensured.
I repeat the adage once again with a slight modification: earthquakes don’t kill people, weak buildings do.
I strongly suggest integrating seismic safety design directly into infrastructure development in the country and ensuring that it takes precedence over economic considerations. After all, human lives are more important, and there should be zero tolerance in this regard.
The seismic zoning map is essential for urban planning, engineering, and construction as cities grow due to the fast pace of development in the country. Failing to integrate these disciplines can endanger lives as well as massive infrastructure, especially critical ones like dams, bridges, metros, and nuclear power plants that are coming up rapidly.
Forewarned is forearmed.
