The Congress party, still reeling from its humiliating defeat in the recent Bihar Assembly polls, appears to be drifting toward yet another internal storm—one that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had prophetically hinted at when he said that “another split in Congress cannot be ruled out.”
At that time, many dismissed his remark as political rhetoric. But the fast-changing political dynamics, legal setbacks, and intensifying leadership contradictions within the grand old party suggest that Modi’s prediction may have been far more prescient than provocative.
The latest flashpoint comes from Karnataka, where the power struggle between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar (DKS) has spiralled into an open display of factional muscle-flexing.
The state Congress, which should ideally be consolidating governance, is instead caught in a debilitating tug-of-war driven by personal ambitions, inflated egos, and mounting distrust between two towering leaders. The rapid escalation of tensions betrayed not only a lack of internal discipline but also the Congress high command’s helplessness—if not irrelevance—in settling disputes.
But the crisis took a dramatic turn after the reported summons from the Economic Offences Wing (EOW) of the Delhi Police to D.K. Shivakumar in connection with the National Herald case. At first glance, the summons might appear to deepen Karnataka’s political turbulence, given DKS’s centrality to the factionalist tussle. Yet, paradoxically, it has emerged as a blessing in disguise for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.
With his deputy now entangled in a high-profile legal battle, the aggressive campaign by DKS loyalists—who had rushed to Delhi demanding that the party implement the so-called “power-sharing formula”—has abruptly run out of steam. The pressure to unseat or dilute Siddaramaiah’s authority has been significantly defused, at least for the moment.
However, the National Herald case summons do much more than alter Karnataka’s immediate political landscape. They strike at the very heart of Congress’s national leadership—its dynastic core. The same case continues to tighten the legal and political noose around Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, after the probing agency reportedly secured court permission to proceed with prosecution based on prima facie evidence.
The dynasts suffered a major setback when their legal plea, reportedly aimed at stalling proceedings, was rejected by the courts. According to information emerging from legal circles, the investigative agencies had indeed placed credible preliminary material before the court—enough for the judge to permit the next stage of prosecution.
This development is not merely a legal inconvenience; it is a political earthquake with far-reaching consequences.
The National Herald case has long been a thorn in the Congress leadership’s side, but the renewed momentum—courtesy of investigative agencies expanding their probe and issuing notices to several individuals linked to the alleged multi-crore financial irregularities—may push the party into deeper isolation within the Opposition bloc.
Many Opposition parties already view the Gandhis as a liability following Congress’s repetitive defeats and its inability to carry a united front. The Bihar loss further weakened Congress’s authority within the INDIA alliance. Now, with the spectre of fresh legal trouble looming over the top leadership, the party’s negotiating power and moral standing have eroded even more sharply.
Privately, several regional satraps within the Opposition fear that aligning too closely with the Congress at this juncture could expose them to political and legal blowback, especially when the party’s top leaders themselves are battling corruption allegations. The National Herald developments may thus widen the gap between the Congress and its potential allies, many of whom already feel suffocated by what they perceive as the Gandhi family’s sense of entitlement and unilateralism.
Within Congress itself, the legal tightening could accelerate an already unsettled internal churn. With electoral setbacks piling up, factional rivalries intensifying, and legal battles cornering the Gandhis, the atmosphere is ripe for internal realignments—and perhaps even a vertical split, as Modi had predicted. The party’s old guard, regional powerhouses, and frustrated middle-rung leaders are all watching the unfolding events with growing unease.
Whether a formal split materialises remains to be seen. But what is undeniable is that the Congress’s structural weaknesses, compounded by fresh legal complications and its diminishing authority within the Opposition space, are pushing the party toward an inflection point. If the leadership vacuum deepens and the dynastic command further weakens, the centrifugal forces already pulling the party apart may soon become unstoppable.
For now, the Congress may attempt to dismiss these developments as politically motivated. But the legal trail, the internal fractures, and the electoral collapse combine to present a harsher truth: the noose is tightening, and the space for denial is shrinking. The party finds itself at a moment of reckoning—one that may either force an overdue transformation or hasten an inevitable fragmentation.
