The first question that one might ask after seeing the results of Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and bye polls in UP, Bihar, and Kerala, is whether the regional parties are on their way out for good or would collectively rise like a phoenix. The two national parties have succeeded with Rahul Gandhi as a guarantee card for the BJP to snatch a comfortable and this time a resounding victory in Maharashtra though it looks like Jharkhand has been gifted to him instead of the former. All tribal states in the northern belt are going to INC-supported alliances where economic stakes are not so high as in Maharashtra as if some quid pro quo has been worked out between INC and BJP. This may sound ludicrous but no more if you see Telangana where the two parties had the most unholy secret understanding just to defeat a common formidable KCR – the bitterest enemy for both. There is a saying in Telugu “dongalu dongalu urlu panchu kunnaru” meaning that thieves have shared their territories. This happened at the cost of regional parties being made sacrificial goats or do we say lambs. If BJP wanted, it could have won Jharkhand too but a message needs to be sent among the suspicious voters that a victory there for the opponent would keep BJP and ECI on a clean slate. Now, no one dares to suspect the fairness of the election process though Sanjay Raut is sure that the rout in Maharashtra is fishy if not ‘whaly’. He is outright sure that the election has been rigged. Would he at the same time agree that JMM and INC rigged in Jharkhand.?
Now it is crystal clear that the national parties have sent a clear and loud shameless message to regional parties that either they join either of them or face backstabbing like this in every election or even by-polls. Now Akhilesh is in the same boat as KCR except that the latter did not align with either of the two national parties even if it meant foregoing power. A strong message to regional parties all over the country is to align themselves either with the INC or BJP. But if one sees the voting pattern, the regional parties cannot be brushed aside just like that. Their voting percentage is good despite not having the kind of money, logistics and paraphernalia that national parties enjoy. They are equally being backstabbed or blackmailed. You can see that Shinde can no more wag his tail though his party has won 57 seats just as how Modi can no more wag his tail before Naidu in Lok Sabha. Still, it may be a temporary setback for him. How BJP vanquished BJD in Odisha, YSRCP in AP, albeit under the umbrella of TDP and Jana Sena is a point to ponder. Sooner than later, slowly but surely the regional parties would be sidelined, downsized, and relieved from any kind of dominance and this spirit is equally appreciated by the two national parties. There was no reason for INC to allow SP to have its way in UP bye polls than to suspect its intention, that of cutting Akhilesh to size. Otherwise, INC had better chances but preferred to put SP in the front. INC is playing a dangerous game by taking the cue from BJP. Those who wanted to vote for INC preferred to vote for BJP than SP in UP. How Akhilesh fell in this trap is a big question and may be the recent victories of INC might have tempted him to believe Rahul Gandhi’s largesse in allowing his party to contest against BJP. One might not dare say that Rahul may have secretly asked his supporters to vote for BJP but one can not prevent from suspecting that premise if we go by the secret understanding his party had with BJP in Telangana as openly agreed by the latter’s MP Konda Visweswer Reddy. Take Bihar also where BJP has fared well, setting aside the regional parties.
With one election one nation sure to take off in 2026, the regional parties have only two options. The first one is all regional parties should snap their relationship with INC or BJP as the case may be and consolidate themselves as one whole entity posing a third alternative to INC and BJP. The second option would be to dissolve themselves and merge with either INC or BJP which are relatively richer, notorious, experienced and shrewder than all the regional parties. In a way, this is not bad because we will have a strong two-party system taking the country forward without any divisive tendencies. And we will have only two leaders of two parties instead of too many leaders of too many parties. If we call Modi a dictator, let us not forget that all party leaders are mini dictators if we go by pessimists. But optimists would correct you saying that they are leaders and not dictators though their determination is camouflaged as dictators. So, should we have many leaders of all political parties working as pillars that hold the roof of democracy strongly?. Or should we have a two party structure like a cantilever bridge hanging on both ends.?
If regional parties come solidly under one umbrella treating their common enemy which may or may not be the amalgamated entity of INC and BJP, then history may take a new turn in tune with the aspirations of the people who are actually fed up of the two parties and enduring them in the absence of a viable united alternative of the regional parties. If all regional parties are strongly united, take it for granted that INC and BJP would be strategically united while putting up a picture of being the bitterest enemies.
So, get prepared for the 2026 One Nation One poll. They have little time if the BJP bulldozes the ONOP. A clarion call to the regional parties while national parties are sitting ‘bindas’. If that doesn’t happen, they have more time to plan effectively to fight INC and BJP or fight them if they strategically and secretly unite to defeat the conglomerate of regional parties in 2029. As a last resort, they can simply sign the death warrant and merge with either of the two national parties. A Hobson’s choice indeed!