As India heads into a decisive round of Assembly elections across four politically distinct states—besides the Union Territory of Puducherry—the larger question goes beyond who will win and who will lose. The real story may be whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is once again reshaping the contours of Indian politics, not merely by capturing power, but by redefining where and how contests are fought.
Each state presents a different battlefield. Taken together, they offer a revealing snapshot of a party no longer content with regional strongholds, but steadily pressing into territories once considered politically impermeable.
Assam: Holding the Fortress
Assam remains the BJP’s most secure front. Under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, the party has blended aggressive governance optics with relentless political messaging. Infrastructure expansion, law-and-order narratives, and a strong organizational presence at the grassroots level have kept the BJP in a state of permanent campaign mode.
The opposition—led by a fragmented Congress and a patchwork of regional allies—faces the challenge of converting anti-incumbency into a coherent electoral wave. Unless that alignment sharpens dramatically, this election in Assam may turn less on whether the BJP retains power and more on how decisively it does so. For the party, a strong mandate here would reinforce its claim as the dominant force in the Northeast, a region it has worked steadily to integrate into its national political framework.
West Bengal: From Challenger to Contender
If Assam is about consolidation, West Bengal is about ambition. The BJP’s rise in the state over the past two election cycles has disrupted decades-old political patterns. What was once seen as a sporadic, top-down campaign has evolved into a structured organization with booth-level presence, a recognizable second line of leadership, and a widening social base.
While capturing power outright remains an uphill climb, the BJP is no longer a marginal player. Even forcing a reduced majority for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) or pushing the state toward a hung Assembly would mark a significant psychological and political breakthrough. Such an outcome would signal that Bengal—long seen as resistant to the BJP’s national narrative—has become an active and contested frontier. The party may even seek to replicate the “Bihar model,” where it emerged as the single-largest party and, with the support of its ally Janata Dal (United), went on to form the government.
For the ruling establishment, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, this election is primarily about defending political dominance. For the BJP, it is about proving that its foothold is permanent, not provisional. The party won 77 seats on its own in the 2021 Assembly elections—a historic leap—but struggled to retain that strength as several legislators later defected back to the TMC. Reclaiming and expanding that base will be central to its Bengal strategy.
Tamil Nadu: The Ally’s Battle, the BJP’s Measure
Tamil Nadu offers a more layered contest. The primary fight is between the ruling DMK and the AIADMK, now realigned with the NDA. Yet the BJP’s performance will be closely scrutinized as a measure of how far it has travelled in a state traditionally wary of national parties.
Once dismissed as a peripheral force, the BJP now speaks openly of crossing into double digits in the Assembly. Its growing urban presence, appeal among sections of the middle class, and sharper cultural and national messaging have given it a visibility that was absent even a decade ago.
The recent Madras High Court verdicts in the Deepam row are expected to sharpen political polarization, potentially consolidating sections of the Hindu vote if the BJP is seen as a credible political protector of cultural interests. Meanwhile, the entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay could fragment sections of the Dalit, Christian, and Muslim vote base—an arithmetic that the BJP believes may open new pathways for electoral gains.
If the AIADMK–NDA combine manages to dislodge the DMK, the BJP’s role will be seen not merely as supportive, but strategic. A significant seat tally would position the party as a stakeholder in governance, marking a meaningful breakthrough in the Dravidian heartland. Such momentum, party strategists argue, could make subsequent contests in Congress-ruled Telangana and Karnataka more politically navigable.
Kerala: The Long Game and a Wild Card
Kerala remains the most intriguing and unpredictable board. Historically dominated by the Left and the Congress, the BJP has struggled to convert vote share into seats. Yet recent local body successes, including the symbolic capture of the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation and the elevation of its first woman mayor, hint at a slow but deliberate expansion.
Speculation that the BJP could approach the 25–30 seat mark may sound ambitious, but even half that figure could make the party a decisive factor in a fractured Assembly. This is where political intrigue deepens with the recurring whispers around Shashi Tharoor.
The Congress MP’s visible unease with his party’s central leadership has fueled talk of a possible realignment. Were Tharoor to cross over, the impact would be seismic. The BJP would gain a globally recognized, articulate, and urban-friendly face capable of broadening its appeal beyond its traditional base.
Paired with Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s organizational and administrative profile, such a leadership combination could alter the BJP’s perceived ceiling in Kerala—transforming it from a peripheral challenger into a serious power broker.
A Pattern Beyond the Polls
Across these four states, a larger pattern emerges. The BJP’s strategy appears less focused on isolated victories and more on long-term political penetration. Breaking entrenched monopolies, forcing regional parties into defensive postures, and embedding itself as a permanent presence in diverse political cultures has become the party’s defining approach.
Winning everywhere may remain an aspiration rather than a certainty. But reshaping the battlefield itself is a form of success.
These elections, therefore, may not merely decide who forms the next set of state governments. They may determine who sets the political tone, the alliances, and the narratives that will shape India’s electoral map in the years to come.
