As nationwide mass protests by the Iranian people enter their third week, the balance of power appears finely poised between leaderless demonstrators and the authorities representing the theocratic state. According to human rights activists and Iranian opposition figures, the regime has ratcheted up repression to unprecedented levels, with snipers reportedly positioned on rooftops and ordered to shoot unarmed protesters on sight.
Amid an internet blockade and a near-total news blackout, disturbing reports of indiscriminate firing into crowds by security forces continue to emerge. Grisly scenes of carnage, rarely witnessed even in Iran’s long history of unrest, are circulating widely on social media. While the establishment shows no inclination to relent and continues to rely on brute force to tame this spontaneous mass revolt, protesters are digging in their heels. Many are reportedly declaring that they no longer fear death, signaling that killings alone will not break their resolve.
The theocratic state run by Iran’s Islamic clergy has, historically, relied on one primary instrument of survival—repression, and more repression. Since its founding in 1979 following the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, which overthrew the Shah of Iran, the Islamic Republic has faced repeated waves of popular revolt.
From early protests by women—just days after the revolution—against Khomeini’s diktat mandating compulsory hijab, to the massive Mahsa Amini uprising of 2022–23 that brought millions into the streets after her death in police custody for a minor dress-code infraction, the ruling clergy has consistently depended on extreme force to subdue peaceful dissent.
To dispense this brutality, the regime employs two powerful instruments of unquestioned authority: the Basij (religious militia) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Both were created by Khomeini, ostensibly to defend the revolution. In practice, they function as the iron shield protecting the ruling clerical elite from any upheaval that threatens its grip on power.
Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Iran’s current Supreme Leader, has ruled since 1989 following Khomeini’s death. Now 86, he is widely regarded as a symbolic figurehead, with real power increasingly believed to rest with his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is seen as orchestrating the brutal suppression of the ongoing unrest.
The clerical establishment has survived similar crises before—weathering international condemnation, crippling sanctions, and internal revolts. It has done so through a combination of ruthless domestic repression and strategic use of oil wealth to secure geopolitical backing from Russia and China. Over time, Iran has also expanded its regional influence, positioning itself as a counterweight to Israel through a web of armed proxies: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Assad regime in Syria. Collectively labeled the “Axis of Resistance,” these groups serve Iranian interests in exchange for financial and military support.
That regional architecture began to weaken in 2020 with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the powerful IRGC commander and chief of the Quds Force, in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq. His death dealt a significant blow to Iran’s strategic coherence, leaving its regional operations exposed and providing an opening for adversaries to strike at the network he had carefully built.
Since then, Israel and the United States, working in tandem and through targeted operations, have sought to degrade Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Assad regime—aiming to weaken Iran’s regional leverage as never before.
It is against this backdrop that the latest wave of protests has erupted. Analysts suggest this unrest differs fundamentally from previous uprisings. The immediate trigger is severe economic distress, fueled by the collapse of the Iranian rial, which has plunged to historic lows. Crucially, the protests have reportedly been initiated by traders and small businessmen—once considered a loyal support base of the clerical regime.
An unnamed Iranian official has claimed that the death toll in the current unrest has already crossed 3,000, while unofficial estimates range from 12,000 to as high as 24,000.
Young men and women continue to die in large numbers, and yet the regime—though visibly shaken—remains in control. U.S. President Donald Trump now faces a familiar dilemma: whether to intervene on behalf of the protesters. While he has publicly stated that “help is on the way,” he remains wary of committing American forces, mindful of the bitter legacies of Iraq and Afghanistan. His MAGA support base’s strong aversion to foreign entanglements, coupled with his own pledge to keep American troops out of distant wars, further constrains his options.
Direct American involvement could, in fact, prove counterproductive. It would allow the regime to reframe the uprising as a foreign-backed conspiracy, rallying nationalist sentiment against alleged “Zionist and Western aggression.”
The Ayatollahs appear keen to provoke Israel by launching missiles across the border, hoping to widen the conflict and use external war as a pretext to extinguish the internal firestorm. Trump and Israel would do well not to fall into that trap.
If they do, the protest movement may wither, and the sacrifices of countless young Iranians—such as Mahsa Amini and Erfan Soltani, sentenced to death and awaiting execution for his role in the latest protests—may ultimately be in vain. The oppressive regime would gain yet another lease on life, pushing the dream of freedom further out of reach for a nation that has paid for it in blood.
