The forthcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly elections—expected in 2026—may well turn into a referendum on a question long dismissed by the Dravidian establishment: is Hindu consolidation finally underway in Tamil Nadu? For decades, the state was portrayed as immune to religious polarisation. That assumption is now being stress-tested, largely due to the ruling DMK-led alliance’s own rhetoric and conduct.
Never before has a ruling dispensation in Tamil Nadu been so openly dismissive—many would argue contemptuous—of Hindu belief systems and rituals. The most provocative flashpoint came when Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin publicly likened Sanatana Dharma to diseases such as dengue and malaria, calling for its “eradication.” Far from clarifying or moderating the statement, the DMK leadership chose to stand by it, reinforcing a perception that this was not a slip of the tongue but an ideological posture.
This rhetoric has been compounded by a series of administrative and legal confrontations. The controversy over the Karthigai Deepam—the traditional lighting of lamps at the hilltop temple in Thirupattur—and the DMK government’s decision to challenge court orders that allowed the ritual to proceed have deepened Hindu unease. While there was no question of “impeaching” judges—an inaccurate but emotionally charged allegation in public discourse—the government’s persistence in appealing even after adverse rulings fed into a broader narrative: that state power is being used selectively against Hindu customs.
The political cost of such posturing is no longer confined to social media outrage. It is beginning to reflect in caste and community recalibrations.
The Arithmetic Beneath the Rhetoric
According to Census and survey-based estimates, Hindus constitute nearly 88% of Tamil Nadu’s population, including Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. Muslims and Christians together make up roughly 12%, with Christians accounting for around 6%, a significant proportion of whom are Dalits.
Caste-wise, OBCs form approximately 68% of the population, SCs about 20%, STs around 1–2%, with the remainder being upper castes. Tamil Nadu politics has traditionally been shaped by how these blocs are mobilised—not by religion alone, but through caste coalitions overlaid with identity narratives.
The DMK’s core support has historically come from a combination of Dalits, sections of OBCs (notably Vanniyars), minorities, and urban upper castes. The BJP, by contrast, has been attempting to stitch together a Hindu social coalition drawing support from communities such as Thevars, Gounders, sections of Dalits, tribals, and upper castes. While these numbers have not yet translated into sweeping victories, the trendlines matter more than the totals.
For the DMK–Congress alliance to retain power, it must consolidate almost the entirety of minority votes, a large chunk of Dalits, and a decisive slice of OBCs. That task is becoming harder—not because these groups are ideologically shifting en masse, but because overt anti-Hindu rhetoric risks alienating voters whose caste identities coexist with religious belief.
The Vijay Factor: Disruption Without Direction?
The entry of actor Vijay into active politics adds another variable. Charismatic, relatively young, and commanding enormous appeal among youth, Vijay has signalled a centrist, anti-establishment posture. His Christian background is politically relevant but not determinative; his appeal cuts across communities, including Dalits and OBC youth disillusioned with legacy parties.
That said, political history in Tamil Nadu is unforgiving to celebrity movements without organisational depth. Vijay’s party may well secure a respectable vote share in its first outing, but unless it aligns with either the DMK-led front or the AIADMK–BJP bloc, its chances of influencing government formation remain slim. Tamil Nadu’s 234-seat Assembly rewards alliances, not solo flights of ambition. The fate of Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam stands as a cautionary tale.
Congress: Big Claims, Shrinking Ground
For the Congress, Tamil Nadu increasingly resembles a stage for ambitious speeches and modest returns. The party’s newly appointed state in-charge, K. Manickam Tagore, is reportedly working to consolidate minority and Dalit support while positioning Congress as a bulwark against what it terms a “Hindutva surge.”
Yet, this strategy risks overreach. The Congress lacks an independent organisational base in the state and survives electorally on DMK’s generosity. Aggressive bargaining for seats may satisfy short-term optics but could further marginalise the party if it overplays its hand.
Speculation about foreign influence, international advocacy networks, and overseas funding circulates widely in political discourse—especially among diaspora groups—but remains in the realm of perception rather than proof. What is undeniable, however, is that Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, both heading into crucial electoral cycles, will be under intense political scrutiny. Ensuring transparency in political funding and preventing communal escalation will be a test for institutions across the board.
The Opposition’s Opportunity—and Risk
On the other side, the AIADMK–BJP alliance senses an opening. A narrative of Hindu self-respect, cultural assertion, and backlash against ideological condescension is gaining traction, particularly among OBCs and sections of SC/ST communities who resent being politically patronised.
Yet, this opportunity comes with caveats. The AIADMK is no longer led by a figure with J. Jayalalithaa’s singular authority. In this vacuum, the BJP—driven by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal appeal among OBC voters—plays a larger role than the Dravidian party may be comfortable admitting. Any residual arrogance or reluctance to accommodate alliance partners could blunt the opposition’s momentum.
Dreams vs. Demographics
The DMK–Congress combine appears to be betting on an old formula: fragment Hindu society while consolidating minorities and Dalits. But political formulas age. When ideological rhetoric begins to collide with lived faith, especially in a society where caste and religion are intertwined rather than mutually exclusive, backlash is not just possible—it is probable.
What unfolds in Tamil Nadu will not merely decide a government. It will test whether dismissing majority sentiment as expendable is still a viable political strategy—or merely another case of Mungerilal ke haseen sapne colliding with electoral reality.
