Indian politics has always tolerated ideological somersaults. But every few years, the ballot box delivers a brutal reminder that even seasoned players cannot outsmart voters forever. The latest Bihar assembly verdict is exactly that kind of reminder — especially for two veterans who once walked out on the BJP-led NDA, only to return wiser, chastened, and undeniably more dependent on the very coalition they abandoned: Nara Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar.
The 2024 Lok Sabha verdict shook the BJP, but it also rattled its allies. The NDA scraped through with a thin majority. Only when the Telugu Desam Party re-entered the coalition — after a humiliating five-year exile — did the alliance regain a measure of stability. That return was not an act of ideological alignment, but a lesson learned the hard way by Chandrababu Naidu.
Naidu’s 2018 decision to quit the NDA was political hara-kiri disguised as bravado. Convinced of his indispensability, he weaponised arrogance at the worst possible moment, launching a crusade against the BJP ahead of the 2019 polls. That too joining hands with the Congress. The result was catastrophic: the TDP was wiped out, Naidu was pushed to political irrelevance, and his party machinery was left in disarray. It took five long years for him to recalibrate, swallow his pride, and rejoin the NDA before the 2024 elections. The reward? A sweeping mandate in Andhra Pradesh restored him to the Chief Minister’s office. Had Naidu stayed out of the NDA this time too, Andhra Pradesh’s political map would have looked entirely different, with YSRCP enjoying a free run.
If Naidu’s flip-flop was driven by arrogance, Nitish Kumar’s trademark inconsistency comes from chronic political restlessness. His decision to exit the NDA and embrace the RJD-Congress combine in 2022 was not a leap of ideology but a gamble fuelled by personal ambition. Nitish fancied himself as the face of the national Opposition — the man who might unite regional satraps into a coherent challenge to Narendra Modi. But he underestimated two things: the Congress’s ability to hijack any unity platform and the deep mistrust among regional leaders who saw Delhi-centric leadership as a trap, not a solution.
The result was predictable. Nitish found himself sidelined in the very ‘INDIA’ bloc he helped stitch together. The Congress had other ideas, other egos to supplicate, and other power equations to protect. By early 2024, the Bihar Chief Minister realised he had walked into a political cul-de-sac. His return to the NDA was not a masterstroke, but a rescue act.
Still, fortune favoured him. The JDU delivered a significantly better performance than in the previous assembly polls, securing around 80 seats in a 243-member House. The BJP emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats. Together, the alliance crossed the two-thirds majority mark with ease. The Congress, despite its grand national ambitions, was reduced to a humiliating six seats. The RJD failed to convert anti-incumbency into gains. Nitish Kumar, once mocked as ‘Palturam’, ended up returning to power — again — but only because he abandoned the very coalition he once saw as his national launchpad.
What the Bihar verdict and Andhra Pradesh turnaround demonstrate is something political analysts often ignore: the BJP may need allies for numbers, but these allies need the BJP for survival. The TDP and JDU’s post-Lok Sabha return to the NDA did not strengthen the BJP as much as it saved these regional leaders from their own miscalculations. Had Nitish fought as part of the INDIA bloc, he would have been decimated. Had Naidu stayed out, YSRCP would still be ruling Andhra Pradesh.
Both leaders walked away from the NDA believing they could challenge the BJP from outside. Voters have shown them — twice over — that their political relevance comes not from defiance, but from alignment. The Bihar mandate has made one thing clear: in today’s political landscape, arrogance and inconsistency may earn soundbites, but they rarely earn power.
