MS Shanker
As Tamil Nadu inches closer to the 2026 assembly elections, the political landscape is witnessing significant shifts. The recent meeting between AIADMK chief Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Union Home Minister Amit Shah signals a possible realignment that could reshape electoral equations. While Palaniswami termed it a courtesy call, political insiders suggest otherwise.
AIADMK’s decision to walk out of the NDA in 2023 was seen as a bold move, largely influenced by its differences with Tamil Nadu BJP chief K. Annamalai. However, the party now seems to be reassessing its strategy. The BJP’s steady rise in the state is undeniable—its vote share surged to 18.28% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, narrowing the gap with AIADMK’s 23.05%. Meanwhile, the ruling DMK-led INDIA bloc secured 46.57%, sweeping all 39 seats in the state. These numbers highlight a changing dynamic that AIADMK cannot ignore.
For the first time, Tamil Nadu’s political landscape is seeing the rise of a non-Dravidian party capable of making inroads. The BJP, under Annamalai’s leadership, has built credibility, particularly among youth and neutral voters. His aggressive stance has positioned the party as a formidable force, even overtaking AIADMK in some areas.
Unlike AIADMK and DMK, both of which have lost their iconic figures in J. Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, the BJP has capitalized on this leadership vacuum. Annamalai’s growing influence has unsettled both Dravidian parties, prompting AIADMK to reconsider its approach.
Adding another layer of complexity is the political entry of Tamil superstar Vijay through his party, Thamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK). According to early polls, TVK already commands over 20% of the vote share, posing a potential challenge to both DMK and AIADMK. If this trend holds, Vijay’s party could play a decisive role in shaping electoral outcomes.
DMK, already facing anti-incumbency sentiments, now has to contend with TVK’s rise. AIADMK sees an opportunity in this shift, realizing that a strategic alliance with BJP and possibly TVK could put it in a winning position.
A key factor in Tamil Nadu’s shifting political currents is the sentiment among the state’s Hindu voters. The DMK’s stance on Hindu culture has sparked discontent, particularly following controversial statements by party leaders. The BJP has strategically positioned itself as the party championing Hindu interests, attracting voters disillusioned with the Dravidian parties.
Additionally, DMK’s association with the Congress and its perceived anti-Hindutva leanings have alienated a section of voters. This dissatisfaction, coupled with Annamalai’s growing appeal, could benefit the BJP-AIADMK combine.
With Tamil Nadu’s political space becoming increasingly fragmented, alliances will play a crucial role. AIADMK is reportedly in talks with TVK, exploring the possibility of a broader coalition. If AIADMK, BJP, and TVK come together, they could collectively command over 40-42% of the vote share, making them strong contenders against the ruling DMK.
However, challenges remain. BJP and TVK will likely demand key positions in the government, such as deputy chief ministerial posts. AIADMK will need to navigate these negotiations carefully to avoid internal fractures.
Tamil Nadu’s political realignments could have far-reaching implications beyond the state. If an AIADMK-BJP-TVK alliance materializes and succeeds, it would not only unseat DMK but also alter national political equations. The coming months will determine whether AIADMK can forge a winning coalition or if DMK will manage to retain its dominance amid emerging challenges.
With multiple players now in the fray, Tamil Nadu’s 2026 elections are set to be one of the most unpredictable and closely watched political battles in recent history.
