The Ukraine War, Western Sanctions, and a New Test of Indian Strategic Autonomy
India’s relations with Russia have been built on a strong foundation of strategic partnership, defense cooperation, and political trust for decades. From the Cold War era to the present, Russia has been one of the few countries that supported India’s interests even in difficult times. However, the Russia-Ukraine war that began in 2022 has transformed global politics, energy markets, financial structures, and strategic alliances, bringing India-Russia relations to a new turning point. Strict Western sanctions have not only impacted Russia’s economy and defense production capabilities, but have also created unprecedented diplomatic challenges for partners like India. While the United States, Europe, and Indo-Pacific partners expect India to adhere to Western norms, India cannot ignore Russia’s energy, defense, and international balance needs. India faces a crucial test at this crossroads: how to maintain relations with Russia while firmly establishing its strategic autonomy.
The biggest complication today is that Russia appears to be gradually moving closer to China, and this equation is not entirely favorable from the perspective of India’s interests. Russia’s growing economic, technological, and military cooperation with China is affecting the regional balance within which India formulates its security strategy. India knows that China’s intentions are not limited to Asian dominance, but rather to alter the global balance of power. Consequently, the Russia-China proximity complicates India’s strategic calculations.
Western sanctions are no less challenging for India. Defense imports from Russia and critical spare parts are being slowed by Western sanctions. Many of the key systems India’s Air Force and Army rely on are Russian-made or co-produced with Russia. The pressure on the Russian defense industry due to the Ukraine war has made India concerned about the timelines of several military projects. Delays in the delivery of some weapon systems and missiles also reflect this. This situation forces India to diversify its defense sources in the long term and focus more on domestic production.
Meanwhile, trade imbalances have emerged as a serious aspect of India-Russia relations. A sharp increase in crude oil imports has made India’s trade with Russia lopsided. India’s exports to Russia are extremely low, and the payment system has clearly not stabilized. The rupee-ruble trading system has failed to achieve the desired efficiency due to Western sanctions and international banking regulations. This has increased uncertainty and risk in the trade structures between the two countries.
On the other hand, Western countries also want India to reduce its support for Russia and adopt a “moral” stance on the Ukraine issue. However, India’s foreign policy is based more on national interests than on shared morality. India has repeatedly abstained from voting at the United Nations, making it clear that it will not directly support any side. This balanced stance symbolizes India’s strategic autonomy. However, it has received mixed reactions in Western countries. Some call it India’s “pragmatic diplomacy,” while others see it as “excessive sympathy” for Russia. India will have to deftly manage its foreign policy amid these pressures.
India also faces the challenge of having both Russia and the United States as important partners. The United States is India’s largest technological and economic partner today, and also an integral part of the Asia-Pacific security architecture through the Quad. Russia, meanwhile, is a traditional ally and has been a key pillar of India’s defense structure for decades. Maintaining a balance between these two pillars is a complex but essential task for India’s diplomacy. India must demonstrate that both partnerships offer complementary benefits, not contradictions.
India can adopt several diplomatic strategies to maintain this difficult balance. First, it must accelerate the implementation of “Make in India” and “Atmanirbhar Bharat” by reducing its dependence on defense imports. Joint production and technical cooperation with Russia can be expanded on Indian soil, reducing dependence on direct imports and minimizing the impact of sanctions. Additionally, India must strengthen new defense partnerships with countries such as Europe, the United States, France, and Israel.
Another important step would be for India to diversify its trade with Russia in energy, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, IT, and other non-defense sectors. This would reduce the trade imbalance and stabilize the economies of both countries. Third, India needs to develop a reliable and sanctions-proof payment system. Using BRICS, SCO, and alternative financial systems could be effective for this.
At the diplomatic level, India must maintain a trustworthy dialogue with Russia, while also conveying to Western countries that India’s neutrality is a result of responsible strategic thinking. India has previously demonstrated that it can protect its interests without joining any bloc. Today’s global situation demands a more mature and multifaceted approach from India.
Amid all these changes, it is crucial that India protect its national interests and not follow any superpower. India has always supported a multipolar world order, in which no single power dominates. While maintaining relations with Russia, India must maintain a clear independent foreign policy direction—one that neither makes decisions under pressure nor takes unnecessary sides in any conflict.
Ultimately, India-Russia relations stand at a historic juncture. The Ukrainian conflict, the politics of sanctions, and changing alliance structures have made this relationship challenging, but they also hold opportunities. India must recognize that Russia is not just a defense partner, but a partner with whom energy security, international balance, and many aspects of Asian politics are intertwined. Similarly, the West is an essential partner in India’s rise. Therefore, India’s goal should not be to align itself with any one pole, but to choose a path of balance that strengthens its strategic autonomy, economic stability, and global role.
This is the time for India to use its diplomatic skills, cool reasoning, and determination to show the world that strategic autonomy is not just a policy but India’s global identity.
