The political landscape of Andhra Pradesh is once again in the spotlight as Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu’s recent statements on two contentious issues — the Waqf Bill and the endorsement of the caste census — have sparked significant debate. With Naidu’s independent streak in full display, political observers are speculating whether his relationship with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) might be on shaky ground. This speculation gains further traction given the Congress-led Opposition’s confidence that Naidu’s alliance with the BJP could be short-lived, especially in the light of these sensitive topics.
Naidu is not new to taking a stand that diverges from the broader BJP narrative, particularly on issues like reservations for minority communities and caste-based census. His 2024 election manifesto, which boldly included a promise of 4% reservations for Muslims, was released without the presence of BJP members, signalling a clear difference of opinion between the two coalition partners. Naidu’s commitment to this cause highlights his willingness to pursue policies that he believes will benefit the people of Andhra Pradesh, even at the risk of straining relations with the BJP.
Naidu’s stance on the caste census is another issue that has caused friction with the BJP. Supporting the caste census is a significant move that aligns him with the Congress-led Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) — a coalition pushing for a comprehensive caste count to address social inequalities. The call for a caste census has become a rallying cry for many opposition parties, who believe it would expose the socio-economic imbalances within Indian society. Naidu’s endorsement of this initiative places him at odds with the BJP, which has historically been cautious about caste-based data.
While Naidu’s stance has raised eyebrows, the BJP has been busy consolidating its power in other states, as seen in its recent sweeping victory in Haryana. Contrary to exit poll predictions, the BJP won a record 48 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly, marking its third consecutive term in power. Despite Congress’s efforts to make inroads by playing the OBC card and raising issues like the farmers’ plight and the Agniveer scheme, the electorate stood firmly behind the BJP.
The BJP’s victory in Haryana highlights its robust electoral machinery and the challenges the Congress bloc faces in reclaiming lost ground. This development underscores a dilemma for Naidu — does he risk his alliance with a resurgent BJP to pursue his own political ideology, or does he align his agenda to fit the larger framework set by the saffron party? That too when several other state elections are scheduled this year end – Maharashtra and Jharkhand – and Bihar.
Historically, Naidu has been a master strategist when it comes to political alliances, adapting his stance as per the prevailing political climate. His decision to rejoin the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) just before the latest general elections indicates his pragmatic approach to power. Despite the BJP not securing a clear majority on its own, Naidu and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) stood firmly by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, helping to form a stable government.
Given this background, it remains a significant question whether Naidu will now gamble his hard-earned political capital by taking positions that could alienate the BJP. In the past, Naidu’s political miscalculations — like distancing himself from the BJP just before the 2019 elections — led to a significant setback, pushing his party into an insignificant and ineffective Opposition by aggressive and regressive postures by YS Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSRCP. This history looms large as Naidu contemplates his next move in the rapidly evolving political scenario.
One of the core challenges Naidu faces in his promise to extend reservations to Muslims is the legal precedent set by the Supreme Court of India, which has consistently struck down religion-based reservations. Similar attempts by leaders like the late Dr Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy to introduce reservations for Muslims were nullified by the apex court. Naidu, well-versed in constitutional limitations, is undoubtedly aware of these hurdles, making his promise appear more symbolic than practical.
The BJP’s lukewarm response to Naidu’s manifesto commitment on Muslim reservations further underscores the ideological divergence between the two allies. For the BJP, such promises conflict with its core electoral strategy, which is built around Hindutva and a unified civil code. Naidu’s advocacy for these reservations could, therefore, place the alliance under additional strain, especially if the BJP perceives it as a threat to its ideological foundations.
On the issue of the caste census, Naidu’s stance has been more nuanced and calculated. He has openly suggested that a real-time census, integrated with data from Aadhaar cards, could help in focusing on the development of backward castes. Naidu’s support for the caste census could be seen as a move to court the OBC vote bank, which has grown in significance in Indian politics. His approach aims to strike a balance between economic and social factors, ensuring that development reaches all strata of society.
However, Naidu’s endorsement of the caste census also risks putting him at odds with the BJP’s cautious approach to the issue. The Congress-led INDIA bloc, which has made the caste census a central point of its agenda, could view Naidu’s support as an opportunity to drive a wedge between him and the BJP, weakening the NDA from within.
Beyond Andhra Pradesh, Naidu’s political ambitions extend into neighbouring Telangana. Reports suggest that he has been making frequent visits to Hyderabad, reconnecting with his party cadre in a bid to revive the Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) fortunes in the state. His focus on Telangana is part of a broader strategy to position the TDP as a formidable force once again, especially if the proposed One Nation, One Election plan comes to fruition.
Naidu’s revival strategy in Telangana hints at his larger political agenda — to reclaim lost political ground and make the TDP a significant player on both state and national levels. This plan also involves countering the influence of the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS), which has seen its relevance wane since its transformation from a regional party to a national one. With the BJP gaining traction as a strong alternative to the Congress in Telangana, Naidu’s plans could involve leveraging this momentum to rebuild his party’s base.
As political dynamics continue to evolve, the real question is whether Naidu will dare to strain relations with the BJP or whether he will align his moves with the broader objectives of the NDA. Naidu’s recent statements, while suggesting an independent course of action, also reflect his political pragmatism — a trait that has helped him navigate the turbulent waters of Indian politics for decades.
While the Congress-led Opposition hopes to lure Naidu away from the BJP, the TDP supremo’s focus appears to be on reviving his party’s fortunes and securing his legacy. Given the stakes, Naidu’s next moves will likely be a careful balancing act between maintaining his alliance with the BJP and pursuing his long-term political objectives. Whether he will prioritize his independent thinking or the coalition’s stability will define the future trajectory of Andhra Pradesh politics and his own political journey.
