With the Election Commission of India expected to announce Assembly poll dates in the first week of March, the political chessboard across Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry is entering its decisive phase. The Commission’s special intensive revision of voter lists and its scheduled ground assessments signal that preparations are in advanced stages. If 2021 was a simultaneous electoral spectacle, 2026 promises to be far more unpredictable.
In my view, the NDA has a better chance this time in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, while retaining its grip on Assam. Kerala may not flip, but the BJP could mount its most credible fight yet. And Puducherry remains the dark horse.
Assam: Advantage Incumbency
Assam appears the most stable among the five states. According to the latest Vote Vibe survey, the NDA leads with 33.4%, ahead of the INDIA bloc at 30.9%, with AIUDF trailing at 4%. The margins are not dramatic, but they are sufficient. Unlike the volatile political climates elsewhere, Assam’s electorate has shown consistency in backing the NDA’s governance plank. Unless there is an unforeseen consolidation of anti-incumbent forces, the ruling alliance enters the contest as a clear favourite.
West Bengal: Winds Shifting?
West Bengal is where the real battle intensifies. Poll averages project the BJP ahead with roughly 163 seats against the Trinamool Congress’s 120. While many analysts initially believed that the welfare schemes of Mamata Banerjee would secure another term, the mood appears more fluid.
The Special Intensive Revision of voter rolls by the Election Commission of India has become politically consequential. Allegations of illegal migrant voter consolidation have put the ruling party on the defensive. Mamata Banerjee’s direct challenge to the process in the Supreme Court reportedly did not evoke judicial sympathy. Beyond legal battles, perception matters — and the perception of administrative overreach and maverick leadership may be weighing on urban and semi-urban voters.
The BJP’s steady organisational expansion since 2021, coupled with fatigue among sections of the electorate, makes Bengal more competitive than ever. It may not be a sweep, but it is no longer a foregone conclusion for the Trinamool.
Tamil Nadu: Fragmentation Favors the NDA
Tamil Nadu is the most fascinating theatre. In 2021, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) secured 133 seats on its own, with its alliance touching 159. The All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), then aligned with the NDA, won 66 seats.
Today, the arithmetic is far less certain.
Recent surveys show the DMK-led alliance at 35.8% and the AIADMK-led front at 33.8% — effectively a statistical tie. The real disruptor is actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), polling around 19%. More importantly, 31.5% of respondents believe TVK hurts the DMK more than the AIADMK. That single dynamic alters the race.
Anti-incumbency is visible. Nearly 54% say they are unlikely to support their current MLA. About 42% rate the DMK government poorly. There is also a strong sentiment that Tamil Nadu’s long-standing pattern of voting out ruling governments may repeat.
Youth and women voters are reshaping the contest. The 18–24 age group leans strongly toward Vijay, while women show higher support for TVK than men. Chief ministerial preference remains split: M.K. Stalin at 33%, Edappadi K. Palaniswami close behind, and Vijay emerging as a credible third pole.
The issues driving voters are telling. Alcoholism and drug-related concerns top the list at nearly 20%, far outweighing development narratives at a mere 2%. Social order and personal safety appear more urgent than infrastructure rhetoric.
For the NDA, this fragmentation is an opportunity. If the anti-DMK vote consolidates tactically and TVK continues drawing disproportionately from the ruling alliance’s base, Tamil Nadu could witness a tighter verdict than most Delhi studios anticipate.
Kerala: Cracks in the Fortress?
Kerala traditionally oscillates between the LDF and UDF. But the BJP’s ability to capture the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation — long considered a CPM bastion — demonstrated that ideological fortresses can crack. With the LDF and UDF locked in a close contest this time, even marginal vote swings could expand the BJP’s footprint. A breakthrough may not mean forming government, but it could reshape long-term equations.
Puducherry: Stability Over Surprise?
Puducherry may not produce dramatic headlines this time. The BJP, part of AINRC, appears to be in a comfortable position. The alliance arithmetic remains intact, organisational coordination is steady, and there are no visible signs of a wave strong enough to dislodge the incumbent combine.
Politics in the Union Territory, however, has always been shaped by fragmentation and shifting loyalties. Local dynamics, personality-driven contests, and micro-level caste equations often matter more than grand narratives. That is the only variable that keeps analysts from calling it a done deal.
Yet, barring last-minute realignments or unexpected anti-incumbency consolidation, the well-stitched NDA alliance seems better placed to retain power. Caution persists — but the balance tilts towards continuity rather than upheaval.
The Larger Picture
The India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey suggests erosion for both major alliances in Tamil Nadu, with the “Others” category rising sharply — largely due to TVK. This signals voter restlessness. Fragmentation does not automatically favour incumbents; it often benefits the side better positioned to convert vote share into seats.
The 2026 Assembly elections will not merely be state contests. They will test the NDA’s eastern consolidation strategy and its southern expansion ambition. Assam looks secure. West Bengal is competitive. Tamil Nadu is fluid. Kerala is cautiously opening. Puducherry is unpredictable.
If momentum holds, the NDA could emerge stronger than in 2021. But in politics, arithmetic is only half the story. Chemistry — leadership perception, alliances, and last-mile mobilisation — will decide whether this is merely optimism or a genuine electoral shift.
