Dhaka: Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) on Friday claimed victory in the crucial general elections, marred by sporadic incidents of violence, to elect a new government to replace the interim administration, which took charge after the fall of the Awami League regime in August 2024.
“The Bangladesh Nationalist Party-BNP is set to form the government after victory in the majority of seats,” BNP’s media cell posted on x.
The Election Commission (EC) is yet to make a formal announcement.
Local media reports said the BNP and its allies have crossed 200 seats in the 300-member Jatiya Sangsad, or House of the Nation, with party chairman Tarique Rahman set to take charge as Prime Minister, winning the Bogura-6 and Dhaka-17 constituencies by a landslide.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi conveyed his “warm congratulations” to Tarique Rahman on leading the BNP to a decisive victory in the Bangladesh elections. “This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership,” he said, adding that India would continue to support a “democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh”.
PM Modi also said, “I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals.”
For India, which spent more than a decade building its closest regional ties with Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, a BNP-led government means re-engaging with a party with whom ties were marked by tensions in the past.
We take a look at what the BNP’s win means for India and how India–BNP relations have unfolded over the years.
The 2026 election is the first since the student-led uprising that forced Sheikh Hasina from power in 2024 and ended more than 15 years of Awami League dominance. The BNP’s claim of a parliamentary majority now places Tarique Rahman—long exiled in London and legally embattled for nearly two decades—at the centre of Bangladesh’s political future.
His political trajectory shifted rapidly after the collapse of Hasina’s government. The High Court overturned his convictions following her fall, enabling him to shed the label of a “political fugitive” and return as a viable contender for the premiership. A BNP victory therefore not only alters Dhaka’s power structure but also recasts Rahman’s political identity, which the party is now actively framing as stable and forward-looking.
Rahman’s leadership is now being accompanied by a clearer effort to recalibrate ties with India. Mahdi Amin, a close advisor of Rahman, told The Indian Express: “Of course, there are issues, but every issue can be an opportunity as well to forge better ties between people-to-people contacts. We would appreciate bilateral relations based on mutual trust, mutual interest — a reciprocal relation where we can serve both nations with equality, fairness and justice.”
Amin added that cooperation could deepen across sectors such as “trade, industry, culture, education, security”, noting the “opportunities for both countries to work together… while serving the interests of all nations and ensuring that mutual benefit is protected.”
Rahman’s stated foreign-policy direction includes a shift away from what BNP calls an “all-or-nothing” alignment with New Delhi under the previous regime. Under its “Bangladesh First” approach, the party says it seeks a relationship based on equality rather than dependency.
Even so, foundational bilateral irritants remain unchanged. Rahman has reiterated firm positions on the Teesta and Padma water-sharing arrangements, describing equitable allocation as essential to Bangladesh’s national survival. He has also said that his government would take “strong measures” to curb border killings by the Border Security Force.
Alongside these positions, he has emphasised minority protection, stating that “religion is individual, but the state belongs to everyone.”
The BNP’s manifesto expands on these themes under the banner of “Bangladesh Before All”. It says the party will establish friendly relations with all countries but will “not accept any country as its master”. Notably for India, the manifesto pledges “zero tolerance” for terrorism, promising that the party “will not provide shelter or support to any terrorist,” and that a “national consensus will be built against militancy and extremism and terrorism.”
The party has additionally spoken of reviving SAARC and making it effective, a legacy linked to BNP founder Ziaur Rahman.
Long before the Awami League consolidated power, India’s ties with the BNP, headed by former prime minister Khaleda Zia, had already been strained by security and political concerns.
When the BNP was in power between 2001 and 2006, ties were strained over border security issues and allegations that anti-India groups found shelter inside Bangladesh. In 2004, Indian agencies raised concerns after ten truckloads of weaponry were discovered at the Chattogram CUFL jetty, which New Delhi said were meant for separatist groups operating in the northeast.
India’s wariness carried into the following decade. In 2013, New Delhi raised concerns about BNP chairman Tarique Rahman’s alleged proximity to fundamentalist networks and the ISI. For India, the BNP’s political alignment with the Jamaat-e-Islami only deepened anxieties. This history created a long period in which India kept the BNP at arm’s length, choosing instead to build its deepest strategic and security ties with Hasina’s Awami League.
According to Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS-NUS) analysis, Khaleda, unlike Hasina, framed India through a more sceptical lens. “The BNP’s rhetoric frequently depicted Indian initiatives as hegemonic and unequal, opposing transit arrangements and highlighting unresolved disputes over water and trade,” the ISAS claimed.
A BNP government represents both continuity and change for India. Continuity lies in issues such as Teesta waters, border management, and counter-terrorism commitments. Change stems from the party’s recent signalling on “mutual respect” and structured engagement.
This transition comes at a time when New Delhi had largely refrained from engaging with the outgoing interim administration. The Muhammad Yunus-led government was viewed in India as an unelected dispensation with limited scope for strategic cooperation.
Senior journalist and author Deep Haldar told LiveMint that India had “desisted from engaging with the Yunus government beyond what is necessary”, and noted that a clear electoral mandate would allow Delhi and Dhaka to “come to a negotiating table”.
The BNP’s long political history also shapes expectations. Founded in 1978 by President Ziaur Rahman, the party has previously formed governments, with Khaleda Zia serving three terms as prime minister. Haldar said a BNP-led government was the “best option for India”, noting that a Jamaat-led administration would have created a very different political reality. He added that Delhi and the BNP had engaged in the past, even if the relationship had not always been smooth.
