The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections concluded after the third voting phase on 1 October 2024. Guessing the outcome of results is very tricky for this post-Article 370 abrogation elections because of the clearly defined demography in the region on religious lines. While the Kashmir valley is 98% Muslim majority controlling 50% of the Assembly seats, the Jammu region has a Hindu majority in many districts, except Kishtwar and Doda having a 50:50 population ratio. The delimitation under the J & K Reorganisation Act has added 6 additional seats to the Jammu and 1 seat to the Kashmir divisions bringing the total strength to 90 seats of which 43 seats are now in the former and 47 seats in the later regions. Another 24 seats are designated for Indian areas that fall under PoK bringing the total strength to 114.
Let us analyse the impact of this delimitation on the election results of 90 Assembly seats for which elections were held. To form the government a political party needs to win a minimum of 46 seats. From experience, it is seen that no Muslim-majority region will vote for the BJP, the example 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh is an indicator to this phenomenon. Even Muslim families who were the major beneficiaries of BJP development programs from downstream businesses from Gorakhpur Math and Ayodhya have voted against the Yogi-led campaign; J & K will be no different.
In 2014 when BJP won Lok Sabha polls and formed the government at the centre, it won 25 seats out of 83, excluding Ladakh, in J & K Assembly elections that followed later in that year. Of these 25 seats, 19 were of Hindu majority and 6 were of Muslim majority Jammu. If this is considered the minimum voter base, then it will translate to about 29 seats in 2024. Going by the high voting percentage of above 70 % in Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu like Samba, Udhampur, and Kathua against 66% in Muslim-dominated Jammu in the third phase, there are indications of Hindu votes consolidation and if BJP manages to hold on to its vote share and increase its voters base in SC-ST reserved seats, introduced then they can romp home with 30+ seats; of course there are lots of ifs. However, opening its account in Kashmir Valley is a million-dollar question for them. On the contrary, the performance of the Congress party in the 2 Hindu-dominated Assembly segments of Jammu in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections gives a glimmer of hope to them for a better show and its alliance with NC in the Muslim-dominated seats in Jammu may hurt BJP to some extent.
In the Muslim-dominated Kashmir valley where the fight is for 47 seats, the NC-Congress alliance may face problems due to the presence of newer political parties and several independent candidates like Engineer Rashid that may divide Muslim voters. For example, the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP) led by Altaf Bukhari, who opposes dynastic politics and favour the safe return of Kashmiri Pandits to their homes in Kashmir valley will most likely align with BJP, even the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference (JKPC) led by Sajjad Lone may toe their line for plum posts, post elections. But, it would be naive to write off either NC or PDP influence on the unpredictable nature of the Muslim voters who are known for their vulnerability to be brainwashed by their leaders, Maulanas and Maulvis coupled with soft Pakistan terrorism in the valley.
The battle is very tough and the stakes are high for all major players. For BJP, it is a litmus test to know the pulse of the people after the abrogation of Article 370 and all the development programs initiated in J & K leading to the cessation of stone pelting and bomb blasts incidences that changed the whole state over the past decade. For Congress and NC of Farooq Abdullah, it is business as usual with the former perfecting the art of deception politics of freebies that voters believe will not come if BJP is voted to power, the case of Rs.8500 per month promise of Khata khat is a recent example.
The 2024 election in J & K is unique as both the BJP and the opposition Congress-NC alliance are not fighting to win the elections on their own, but rather vying to be the single largest majority party and form post-poll alliances to form a government. But, in all likelihood, it will be a coalition government led by the BJP if it reaches the magic figure of 30 with the support of JKAP, JKPC, and a few independents.
It is in the interest of the nation and the bright future of the people of Kashmir to defeat the anti-national and divisive forces in their plans to gain power in the state. If this happens the state will suffer more and the security of the nation will be in peril.
