Since Narendra Modi’s sweeping 2014 victory, Indian elections have largely been marked by the BJP’s dominance, interrupted by occasional opposition victories. However, 2024 disrupted this pattern, with wild swings in fortunes for both BJP and Congress. The year began with BJP riding high on the momentum of the Ram Temple inauguration in Ayodhya. The “Ab ki Baar, 400 Paar” slogan dominated political discourse, with pundits forecasting a resounding BJP win. Exit polls projected over 350 seats for the NDA. However, the June 4 results told a different story. BJP fell short of a majority, securing fewer than 240 seats—its worst performance since 2014. The NDA, too, failed to cross 300. Congress, leading the INDIA bloc, doubled its 2019 tally to 99 seats, pushing the bloc to a formidable 234 seats. Notably, the BJP lost significant ground in Uttar Pradesh, with Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party emerging victorious.
Post-Lok Sabha, the BJP undertook a swift internal assessment, blaming poor candidate selection, Dalit-OBC consolidation, and opposition unity for its setbacks. The party recalibrated, yielding impressive state election performances by year’s end. In Haryana, facing anti-incumbency and a split with JJP, BJP replaced its leadership and secured a historic third term. Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, the BJP-led Mahayuti trounced the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi. These wins revitalized the party and underscored Modi’s enduring appeal. Regional shifts also marked 2024. In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP staged a dramatic comeback, sweeping 164 assembly seats in alliance with BJP and Jana Sena. In Odisha, the BJP ended the BJD’s 24-year rule, winning 78 of 147 seats—a first for the party in the state.
Jammu and Kashmir held its first legislative elections in a decade. The National Conference-Congress alliance emerged victorious, with Omar Abdullah returning as chief minister. BJP, however, posted its best-ever performance in the region. In Jharkhand, the INDIA bloc retained power, with the JMM-Congress alliance securing 56 seats. BJP also made strides in the Rajya Sabha, leveraging cross-voting to win key seats and securing a slim majority. Meanwhile, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra debuted in Wayanad, reclaiming the Congress stronghold and adding star power to the party. As BJP regains momentum, it faces tough battles in Delhi and Bihar in 2025. For Congress and its allies, internal unity and strategy will be crucial to sustaining their 2024 gains. For now, the BJP appears poised to extend its dominance, buoyed by its course correction and Modi’s leadership. In a year of dramatic political swings, the BJP demonstrated its resilience, while Congress showed it still had fight left. 2024 reshaped India’s electoral landscape, setting the stage for fierce battles ahead.