T.S. Eliot found April to be the cruelest month. Of course, that was for a different reason. Now, November seems terrorist friendly.
Here, a curious and pattern and perhaps an alarming symmetry is emerging. Consider a few dates: the 9/11 attacks (September, yes – but in the northern-hemisphere autumn), the 26/11 Mumbai attacks on November 26, 2008, and now the recent 2025 Delhi car explosion on November 10, which claimed 13 lives and has been officially declared a terrorist incident.
Why might this be? I offer a few working hypotheses, which may or may not hold up to rigorous statistical scrutiny (I did not crunch 50 years of data), but are worth pondering.
Symbolic timing and media impact
Terror groups love symbolism. They want maximum attention, memorable dates, and seasons when more people are outdoors.
November in many places means cooler weather, more public events, perhaps more tourist traffic (in India, it is post-monsoon, pre-Christmas). Striking in November may also mean the atrocity is fresh in memory when end-of-year retrospectives are running, amplifying the shock.
For example, the Delhi car blast near the Red Fort was timed on November 10 and thus reverberated across headlines right into the year-end.
Operational cycle and winter drift
Another factor is that many militant operations take months to plan; logistic constraints (monsoon season, heat, terrain) may push execution towards the late year.
In South Asia, the monsoon ends around September or October; by November, roads are better, movement easier, and crowds are back out. Security apparatuses may also be transitioning into winter mode.
In Pakistan, the data shows that November saw 71 attacks, up from 68 in October. So the late-year window is perhaps opportunistic.
Complacency window
An often-under-appreciated factor is, by November, many security agencies may be facing fatigue as the year is long, budgets are stretched, and attention is diffused.
Simultaneously, public memory of major recent attacks may have dulled, making complacency easier. Terror planners exploit that lapse – strike when vigilance dips.
Also, November is not yet the full festive or holiday season like in December, but it is close enough that public spaces are busy; hence, ‘maximum exposure, slightly less security’ may apply.
Coincidence vs causation
Before concluding that November is the terrorist favourite month, one must tread carefully. It could be selection bias: we remember the big ones (Mumbai 26/11, Delhi 10/11) and they cluster simply because of chance.
Also many major attacks happen in other months – December, January, and beyond. But the Pakistan data suggests a genuine spike in November 2024: 169 killed, 225 injured in 61 attacks. Hence, the pattern is more than anecdotal, but still needs deeper and global statistical analysis.
Implication for India
Given that pattern, India needs to treat November as a heightened-vigilance month. Security agencies might ramp up intelligence, random checks, crowd scrutiny.
Civil society should not let ‘it is just November again’ become a mantra of complacency. If the trend yields a window, it should be preempted.
Media and public discourse should not assume attacks are inevitable in November (that becomes self-fulfilling). But they should avoid treating November as magically safe either.
There is reason enough to say November seems to have become something like the off-peak high-season for terror acts. Not by mystical calendar magic, but by cold calculation.
And if you ask ‘Why this month?’, the answer might be because vigilance is relaxed, public crowds are back, and the media’s year-end countdown has already begun. So the terrorists decide to gate-crash the party early.
