At a time when the global economy is shaking under the weight of protectionist walls erected by Washington, India has quietly yet emphatically clocked a GDP growth rate of 7.8 percent. That number is not just a statistic—it is a statement. It signals that the world’s fifth-largest economy is not merely surviving the trade tremors unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s tariff tantrums, but actually thriving. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, fresh from a successful SCO meet, underscored this with an oblique jab at the US when he revealed the figure. His counterpunch to his one-time friend Trump came at the inauguration of the third semiconductor plant, where he proudly declared: “The world trusts India.” Now, let’s put the facts in perspective. Trump’s trade war is not an economic policy—it is political theatre, staged for domestic applause. The logic is as crude as it is simplistic: punish imports, squeeze allies and rivals alike, and force global supply chains to bend to American demands. Steel, aluminium, automobiles, and tech gadgets have all faced the wrath of his “America First” tariff barrage. Predictably, the immediate fallout has been turbulence in markets and nervousness in boardrooms. But for India, the long-term story looks far more resilient. First, India’s 7.8 percent growth is anchored in domestic consumption and investment rather than an overdependence on exports. Unlike China’s manufacturing juggernaut, India’s economy is a hybrid—driven by services, agriculture, digital innovation, and infrastructure spending. Tariffs may temporarily pinch IT exports or certain goods, but they cannot derail the structural drivers of India’s growth story. Second, the retaliatory options on the table are not just symbolic—they can sting. Reports suggest that India and China, with Russia in the wings, are weighing a “return gift” of 100 percent tariffs on select US products, starting with the most iconic of them all—the iPhone. Imagine the irony. Apple, already struggling with sluggish demand in China, could find its high-margin Indian market slammed shut. For a company that relies on global supply chains and aspirational consumers, such a blow is hardly trivial. And if India, China, and Russia coordinate, Washington may discover that economic bullying invites more than just angry tweets—it invites economic isolation.
Third, the global trade chessboard is shifting, and Trump’s strategy risks pushing countries like India deeper into non-US partnerships. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), BRICS, and bilateral agreements with ASEAN and the EU are emerging as parallel tracks of trade diplomacy. India has already shown it can navigate tricky waters—buying oil from Russia despite US sanctions pressure, negotiating critical tech transfers with France, and expanding strategic ties with Japan. In other words, if the US chooses confrontation, India has alternatives. Of course, one cannot gloss over the risks. Tariffs raise costs, and prolonged trade wars hurt investment sentiment. Supply chains disrupted in one corner of the globe eventually ripple across to India as well. But it is worth noting that Trump’s tariff crusade has not been surgical—it has been scattershot. American consumers are already paying higher prices for goods, US farmers are facing retaliatory losses, and multinationals are scrambling to shift manufacturing hubs out of China. India, ironically, could be a beneficiary as companies look for alternative destinations. The question, therefore, is not whether India can withstand Trump’s tariff onslaught, but how cleverly it can turn adversity into advantage. With a young workforce, a booming digital economy, and a government eager to attract manufacturing through initiatives like “Make in India,” the country has levers that most others do not. Add to that the geopolitical reality: Washington may bark at Delhi over trade deficits, but it still needs India as a strategic counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. That limits how far Trump can afford to push. At 7.8 percent growth, India has sent a message loud and clear—the world’s fastest-growing major economy will not be bullied into submission. Tariffs may bruise, but they cannot break. And if Trump insists on playing hardball, New Delhi has its own bat and ball ready. After all, in trade wars, as in cricket, retaliation is part of the game.
