MS Shanker
With the Delhi Assembly election results set to be announced tomorrow, the big question looming over the political landscape is: What if the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) fails to return to power? The stakes are high not just for Arvind Kejriwal but for his entire party, as a defeat in Delhi could have serious repercussions in Punjab, where AAP is in power.
Adding to the party’s troubles are ongoing graft probes against Kejriwal and his colleagues, many of whom are out on bail. If AAP suffers a crushing defeat, will they continue their legal battles defiantly, or will the party fracture under pressure? With most pollsters predicting a strong BJP comeback after 23 years, AAP’s future hangs in the balance.
If Kejriwal’s party manages to win 25-30 of Delhi’s 70 Assembly seats, a political comeback cannot be ruled out. However, if the tally falls to just 10-12 seats, internal rebellion could escalate, especially with 6-8 former MLAs already defecting to the BJP. A near-wipeout—where BJP secures 60+ seats—could prove disastrous for AAP, weakening Kejriwal’s grip on his party and prompting further defections.
Meanwhile, the Congress, which has been struggling since its 2014 wipeout, remains a non-factor. If the BJP secures a massive mandate, it could further cement its dominance, pushing both AAP and Congress closer to irrelevance in Delhi politics.
Many political analysts who previously considered Kejriwal a formidable opponent now seem to have abandoned his cause. Exit polls paint a bleak picture, and even Kejriwal’s past welfare measures—like free electricity, bus rides, and Mohalla Clinics—appear insufficient to counteract allegations of corruption, including the ‘Sheesh Mahal’ controversy and the excise scam.
Sections of the media once sympathetic to Kejriwal are now struggling to defend his credibility. Some even argue that he is a political victim of the ruling BJP, but that narrative appears increasingly disconnected from ground realities.
Your website/e-paper has consistently reported that Delhi voters are leaning towards change, placing their trust in Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His assurance to continue welfare schemes, coupled with significant tax relief in the Union Budget—zero tax on income up to ₹12 lakh per annum—seems to have resonated with voters, potentially sealing AAP’s fate.
Exit poll numbers indicate that BJP’s vote share has surged from 38% to a record 48%, while AAP has dropped from 53% to 42-44%. Women voters, in particular, seem to have shifted towards BJP, narrowing AAP’s traditional advantage. Even among Muslim voters, BJP appears to have made inroads, while Congress has gained at AAP’s expense. Analysts also suggest that BCs, SCs, and a major chunk of Hindu voters have tilted towards BJP.
Is this shift a reflection of growing trust in Modi’s governance over Kejriwal’s populism? Has the ‘double-engine’ government delivered more effectively?
While exit polls indicate a tough road ahead, Kejriwal and his supporters remain hopeful that the actual results will defy predictions. However, as the saying goes, “If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.”
For now, all eyes are on the final verdict. Will Kejriwal pull off a miracle, or is this the beginning of the end for AAP?
