I am rather tempted to write on this topic after seeing some surveys on Telengana elections, purportedly carried out by an unknown Bengaluru-based agency. It was time to nail these fakeries. The Congress party’s sweep of the Karnataka assembly polls, held a few months ago, was a fluke. The Congress rode to power not on its five guarantees, but on its minority’s appeasement. It promised the reintroduction of reservations to Muslims and withdrawal of the earlier Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government’s order banning hijab in educational institutions. The guarantees were nothing but a jhumla and might have swayed only a negligible number of voters. On the contrary, the entire minority voting in favour of the Congress helped it win the elections. This was evident from the claims made by community clerics, even demanding the deputy chief minister’s post as well as 4-5 cabinet-rank ministries in the government.
Whereas the Congress in Telangana enjoyed no credibility among the electorate as they were let down many times despite helping it get a respectable Opposition status. The party’s strength in the assembly reduced to insignificance, as its MLAs crossed over to the ruling party. The worst thing that happened was when the so-called national party lost even the Opposition status to the insignificant All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the assembly. Added to that the party opted to make a defector from a party which was formed to weed out the Congress from the state as its chief in Telengana? He was also caught red-handed in a vote for cash scam.
Against that backdrop, if the Congress still thinks that the gullible Telangana electorate will give them the absolute majority to come to power and loot, it is nothing short of the party leaders living in a fool’s paradise. Another major factor is that Muslims are solidly behind the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) as it did a lot to that community and this was acknowledged by the AIMIM floor leader Akbaruddin Owaisi in the assembly. So how the Congress is going to get votes, its leadership alone can explain as the backward classes, other backward classes, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes are no more with them. Can Reddy community alone help the party win? It looks more unlikely and, at the most, the party may get 15-20 seats in the 119-strong assembly.
That apart, how a secular party likes Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) lost so badly in neighbouring Karnataka also stands as a testimony to drive my point home! But, the Congress’ so-called guarantees announced for the poll-bound Telangana unlikely to sway the voters. People of Telangana are happy with the Kalvakuntla Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) government ensuring every household in the below poverty line category getting benefitted from one welfare scheme or the other. He did not ignore or overlook the economic backwardness among the forward communities like the Brahmins and others.
None of the past governments, both the Congress and Telugu Desam Party, take this credit away from KCR. However, KCR’s decision to turn his party into national appears to have disappointed the masses and several of his party leaders. Added to that is KCR’s dictatorial attitudes while announcing welfare schemes, which indeed burdened the state exchequer and also landed his government in deep financial trouble.
This has created some disturbance in the smooth governance as he failed to pay salaries on time or release funds meant for beneficiaries of several schemes on time, which undoubtedly created some resentment among the people. Even KCR cannot deny this. Yet, he may be taking some corrective steps to steady the state’s exchequer like mobilizing funds through auctioning of liquor shops or government lands. Yet his determination to make his son and minister KT Ramarao as his political successor is leading to growing anti-incumbency among the electorate.
And, this revelation had come from the shrewdest BJP icon and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Nizamabad election rally recently. This appears to have rejuvenated the BJP cadres as that element was missing since the state leadership change from party’s Karimnagar MP Bandi Sanjay Kumar to a docile and unassuming Union Tourism Minister G Kishen Reddy. What proved. As effective as a political nuclear bomb was Modi’s revelation at the rally that KCR had approached him for inducting his party into the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold. Modi took permission from the massive crowd at the meeting before revealing this ‘secret’. He did not stop there. He went on to add that KCR, even after denying his party’s entry into NDA, unabashedly requested Modi to ‘bless’ his son Ramarao to succeed him. Without mincing words, Modi claimed that he bluntly told KCR that in a democracy it is the people who have to decide. He even told KCR that he is neither a king nor Telangana his kingdom in which rightful family heirs succeed. By saying so, Modi seems to have even taken potshots discreetly at the Nehru-Gandhi dynasts, who continue to feel that they are above the law and the nation is their ‘jaagir’.
Against that backdrop, KCR is bound to face reversals in more than half of the constituencies his party holds in the December assembly polls. Even the iPad survey indicated the same not so long ago. So the KCR-led BRS may at best be able to emerge as the single largest party with 45-50 seats, falling short of 15-20 seats for a majority.
Even with the help of the BRS’ all-weather invisible ally AIMIM, the party may not reach the halfway mark.
On the contrary, the BJP may prove its critics and doubting Thomases wrong by winning 30-35 seats and establishing itself as the second-largest party in the upcoming polls. The Congress may end up with a maximum of 20-25 seats, which is the highest I wish to give after all the hype and hoopla being created by its supporters.
Thus far, the poll outcome in Telangana will possibly be a fractured verdict, with no party getting the simple majority. That may be the reason for BL Santhosh, the BJP’s all-powerful general secretary, to make a statement yesterday that his party is likely to be in the government. This means the BRS may seek the BJP’s outside support rather than the Congress’, knowing well its track record. Here, the credibility factor of the Congress comes into play and in all probability; it may be a BRS-BJP government in 2024, despite the discomfort of the AIMIM.
Who knows, if that happens, even KCR may as well fulfil his dream of his son succeeding him as the Chief Minister, with blessings from the BJP, which may not and cannot oppose the newly-elected BRS legislature party decision. Whatever is going to happen in the December polls is difficult to predict and my guess is as good as yours!
