Pakistan is teetering on the brink of territorial breakup. The very tactics it used to destabilize India—supporting separatist movements and terrorist outfits—are now haunting its own survival. The latest escalation in Balochistan, where the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has intensified its offensive, signals the possible unravelling of the Pakistani state. Adding to Islamabad’s woes, India is stepping up pressure on Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), while Baloch nationalists openly seek New Delhi’s support for their independence. Balochistan, despite being Pakistan’s largest province, remains its most marginalized. Home to roughly 15 million people, this arid, resource-rich region has long suffered economic exploitation and state repression. Baloch insurgent groups, particularly the BLA, have waged a decades-long battle for autonomy, accusing Islamabad of plundering the province’s vast mineral wealth while leaving its people in abject poverty. The situation has reached a boiling point, with BLA fighters targeting security forces, infrastructure, and Chinese investments linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The BLA’s attack on the Jaffar Express, where passengers and security personnel were briefly taken hostage before being released, highlights the growing unrest. However, the militants have reportedly taken more than 150 Pakistani soldiers hostage— a grim reminder of Pakistan’s weakening grip on the region. The timing is significant—just days after the U.S. State Department issued a travel advisory warning of terrorist threats in Balochistan. Islamabad can no longer dismiss these incidents as isolated insurgencies; they are clear signs of a burgeoning independence movement.
Pakistan has a history of losing territory due to its own oppressive policies. The 1971 war that led to Bangladesh’s independence was a direct result of Islamabad’s brutal crackdown on the Bengali population. Today, a similar fate looms over Balochistan. The state’s strategy of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and military operations has failed to suppress the Baloch demand for self-determination. Instead, it has fueled greater resentment and radicalized the movement further. Adding to Islamabad’s troubles, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has resumed hostilities after breaking a ceasefire in 2022. The year 2024 has already witnessed an unprecedented surge in militant activity, with separatist groups ramping up attacks. The BLA’s growing confidence, combined with increasing collaboration among various insurgent factions, signals a dangerous shift in Pakistan’s internal security dynamics. Pakistan’s fears over Baloch militancy are heightened by its reliance on China. The multi-billion-dollar CPEC, a cornerstone of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), runs through Balochistan, making the province a critical battleground. The Gwadar Port, vital to China’s economic expansion, has become a prime target for insurgents opposing foreign exploitation of their homeland. Intensified attacks on Chinese-backed projects not only threaten Pakistan’s economic stability but also strain its strategic alliance with Beijing.
With Balochistan in open rebellion and India increasing pressure on PoK, Pakistan’s territorial integrity is under severe threat. The irony is striking: the same tactics Pakistan once used to destabilize India are now backfiring with devastating precision. Decades of neglect and repression in its restive provinces have set the stage for yet another partition. Pakistan now stands at a crossroads. It can either acknowledge the legitimate aspirations of the Baloch people and engage in meaningful dialogue or persist with its oppressive policies and risk inevitable disintegration. Many political analysts foresaw this outcome when Pakistan chose provocation over diplomacy—especially after Narendra Modi’s BJP-led government took office in 2014. Despite Modi’s initial attempts at reconciliation, successive Pakistani governments, including those of Nawaz Sharif and his brother, escalated cross-border terrorism, believing they could challenge India’s resolve. They paid a heavy price when the Indian Army launched surgical strikes, eliminating terror camps. Modi himself vowed to reduce Pakistan to a nation begging for aid—a prediction that has become reality. More recently, in a Brigadier-level meeting, Modi warned Pakistan against ceasefire violations, emphasizing that provocations would have consequences. Meanwhile, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Home Minister Amit Shah, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have made it clear: reclaiming Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) is no longer just rhetoric. Now, with the Baloch demanding full independence and seeking India’s support, the Modi government may not hesitate to further dismantle Pakistan. The writing is on the wall—Pakistan is running out of time. And in the end, it will be Modi who has the last laugh, not the weak, army-controlled Shehbaz Sharif.
