The Congress-led Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) faces challenges that go beyond simply winning seats. With dreams that some might call “Mungerilal ke sapne” – illusions untethered from reality – the opposition bloc appears to be betting on scenarios that are unlikely in the current political climate. In Maharashtra, as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies forge a dominant front, the opposition is struggling to find traction and a unified vision.
After suffering significant electoral defeats in recent elections, including Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, the opposition has seen its momentum wane. The Congress, for instance, hoped for a turn of fortunes in Maharashtra, where its coalition with the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under Sharad Pawar forms the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance. However, the ground reality suggests that reclaiming Maharashtra will be an uphill battle.
The BJP, by contrast, is capitalizing on its organizational strength and recent successes to bolster confidence. Even with a dependency on allies, including Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction and Eknath Shinde’s breakaway Shiv Sena group, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance has been able to navigate internal dynamics effectively and retains a stronghold in Maharashtra.
Despite not achieving a full majority, the BJP and its allies remain in a relatively secure position. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), BJP’s ideological parent, has played an instrumental role in mobilizing grassroots support and ensuring disciplined campaign strategies. The RSS’s field organization is renowned for its election strategy, with a success rate that political observers place at around 80-90%. This machine-like efficiency has been critical in previous BJP victories, and it now extends to every assembly constituency in Maharashtra.
The BJP’s confidence in Maharashtra is bolstered by its alliance with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction. This partnership not only stabilizes the coalition but also aligns ideologically with the RSS, which values the preservation of Marathi cultural identity. In contrast, the MVA alliance has internal discord and lacks a clear chief ministerial candidate. This unresolved leadership issue could impact voter confidence in their ability to govern effectively.
The BJP’s campaign has tapped into identity-driven narratives that resonate with a wide voter base. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s slogan, “Batenge toh katenge” (if divided, we diminish), has stirred a sense of unity among Hindu voters in Maharashtra and across regions. This slogan appeals to a perception of urgency, casting the BJP as protectors of national unity at a time when opposition parties are accused of fracturing identities for electoral gain.
Additionally, BJP leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Maharashtra native Nitin Gadkari are campaign stalwarts, leveraging their national and local appeal to strengthen voter engagement. This star power gives the BJP a significant edge, especially as Modi’s popularity and credibility among the electorate remain high. By contrast, MVA leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Sharad Pawar face challenges in establishing similar traction, with Pawar’s alleged ties to underworld figures like Dawood Ibrahim being a point of contention for some voters.
The MVA coalition, comprising Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray), and NCP (Sharad Pawar), is grappling with internal bickering and lacks a unified strategy. While Sharad Pawar has declared Uddhav Thackeray as the coalition’s chief ministerial face, the coalition’s stability is uncertain. Congress has struggled to present a compelling case in Maharashtra, exacerbated by their inability to reassure supporters with solid policy proposals.
Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge’s recent directive to his Maharashtra unit emphasized fiscal restraint, warning against populist promises that exceed budgetary limitations. While intended to manage expectations, this stance may dampen enthusiasm among Congress supporters who are looking for bold commitments in the face of BJP’s aggressive campaigning.
The political landscape favors the BJP-led alliance, with the Mahayuti coalition poised to secure a clear edge in Maharashtra. The BJP’s ability to learn from the successes of its recent state campaigns is evident. For instance, the “Ladli Behan” initiative in Madhya Pradesh, developed by former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, saw tremendous success and has been adapted to suit the needs of Maharashtra voters in the form of “Ladki Behan Yojana.”. By replicating proven strategies and fostering voter loyalty, the BJP has cultivated an advantage that the opposition struggles to counter.
Meanwhile, the MVA coalition’s lack of clarity about its leadership and governance vision further weakens its prospects. The MVA’s promise to project Uddhav Thackeray as its candidate, though nominally unifying, is undermined by internal divisions and power struggles among the constituent parties.
With its organizational prowess, message consistency, and charismatic leadership, the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition has mounted an assertive campaign that leverages both emotional and ideological appeals. In contrast, the MVA is in disarray, lacking not only a coherent narrative but also the level of organization needed to compete effectively with the BJP’s disciplined machinery.
While political miracles are not impossible, the opposition’s dreams seem increasingly detached from the realities on the ground. Their vision of overcoming the BJP in Maharashtra appears, for now, to be more aspirational than practical. Without a stronger foundation, clear leadership, and unified messaging, the MVA’s pursuit of electoral victory in Maharashtra may remain just that – a dream.
