Our Political Desk
The northeastern state of Manipur is once again witnessing a surge in violence, and pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to step in. The Congress-led opposition has been vocal in demanding his visit, arguing that his presence could bring a much-needed shift towards peace. However, the question remains: can even a leader as influential as Modi resolve the deep-rooted ethnic tensions that have plagued Manipur for decades?
Since May last year, inter-communal clashes have resulted in the deaths of over 250 people and displaced around 60,000 residents. The violence stems from long-standing ethnic divides and disputes over government quotas in jobs and education. Manipur has effectively split into two ethnic enclaves: the Meitei-controlled valley and Kuki-dominated hills, separated by a buffer zone guarded by federal paramilitary forces.
The central government has responded by deploying additional security personnel and reimposing the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) in six more police station areas, including the violence-hit Jiribam. This follows the earlier decision on October 1 to extend AFSPA across most of the state, sparing only 19 police station jurisdictions. The Union Home Ministry has directed all security forces to take swift measures to restore order, acknowledging that the situation remains “fragile.”
Ethnic Fault Lines Run Deep
Manipur, like much of the Northeast, is a complex mosaic of diverse communities. The Meiteis, who form just over half the state’s 3.2 million population, are largely concentrated in the Imphal Valley. The remaining population is primarily comprised of tribals, including Kukis and Nagas, who inhabit the surrounding hill districts. The Meiteis, predominantly Hindus but also following animist traditions, have traditionally dominated the state’s business and politics. In contrast, the Kukis and Nagas, most of whom are Christians, have historically felt marginalized.
Ethnic violence is not new to Manipur. The state witnessed brutal clashes in 1993 between Meitei Hindus and Muslims, and later between the Nagas and Kukis. The Kukis, many of whom migrated centuries ago from Myanmar, were originally settled in the hills to serve as a buffer between the Meiteis and Nagas. However, disputes over land and political power have turned these groups against each other, with Nagas and Kukis now united in their opposition to the Meiteis.
The Spark That Ignited the Latest Unrest
The current wave of violence began in May last year during a “Tribal Solidarity March” organized by the All-Tribal Student Union Manipur (ATSUM) to protest the Meiteis’ demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. The demand, supported by a directive from the Manipur High Court, had raised concerns among tribals who feared losing their access to quotas in jobs and education. The march quickly turned violent, with armed mobs attacking Meitei settlements, which then triggered retaliatory assaults in the valley.
Another flashpoint was the eviction of Kuki villages accused of encroaching on protected forest land, adding fuel to simmering tensions. The resentment against the Meiteis, accused of using their political clout for land grabs, reached a boiling point, leading to widespread violence that has yet to subside.
Will Modi’s Visit Make a Difference?
As Manipur burns, many believe that a visit by Prime Minister Modi could help de-escalate the situation. His unparalleled popularity, both domestically and internationally, lends weight to this argument. A personal intervention—meeting with leaders from both sides—could potentially pave the way for a long-lasting resolution. However, given the complexity of the conflict, it’s unclear whether even Modi’s charisma could bridge the ethnic divide.
The timing is critical. With the results of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand state elections due on November 23, and the winter session of Parliament starting the following Monday, a strategic visit to Manipur could be seen as a masterstroke. It would not only send a strong message of solidarity but also challenge the opposition, which has repeatedly questioned Modi’s silence on the issue.
Yet, the reality on the ground suggests that symbolic gestures alone may not suffice. The deep-seated mistrust between the Meiteis, Kukis, and Nagas cannot be easily resolved through a single visit, no matter how high-profile. Any sustainable solution will require addressing the structural grievances of all communities, ensuring equitable access to resources, and fostering dialogue.
As the state continues to simmer, the onus is on the central government to not just quell the violence but also to work towards long-term peace. The coming days will reveal whether the Prime Minister is willing to take on this challenge, and if so, whether it can indeed prove to be a game-changer for Manipur’s troubled history.
