The Congress party’s decision to contest all nine assembly bypoll seats in Uttar Pradesh under its ally Samajwadi Party’s (SP) symbol has sparked confusion and speculation. This move raises critical questions about the Congress’s intentions and its political future in India’s most populous state. Has the grand old party, which once dominated Uttar Pradesh for decades after independence, abandoned its iconic ‘hand’ symbol in the face of persistent rejection by the electorate? Or is this an acknowledgment of its diminished status and an attempt to stay relevant by aligning itself more closely with the SP? For nearly four decades post-independence, Congress ruled Uttar Pradesh, a political powerhouse state that sets the tone for national elections. However, the rise of regional parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) eroded Congress’s influence, pushing it to the margins of the state’s political landscape. Even the party’s attempts to ride on the back of regional forces, particularly the SP, have failed to significantly boost its electoral fortunes. This is evident from its poor showings in the past, where it has often been relegated to third or fourth place behind the SP, BSP, and the resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP, after securing power in 1991 and 1996, made a dramatic comeback in 2017, sweeping Uttar Pradesh and relegating Congress to political obscurity. The much-hyped alliance between Rahul Gandhi’s Congress and Akhilesh Yadav’s SP in 2017 failed to prevent the BJP’s ascendance. Although Congress managed to retain the Rae Bareli seat in the 2019 general elections—Sonia Gandhi’s long-held bastion—it lost the once-safe seat of Amethi, a major blow to the party’s morale. The fact that Sonia Gandhi chose not to contest the 2024 elections from Amethi, instead opting for a Rajya Sabha seat from Himachal Pradesh, is a further sign of the party’s waning confidence in its strongholds.
Against this backdrop, Congress’s decision to contest on the SP’s ‘cycle’ symbol in the bypolls is telling. It reflects an awareness that the party is in no position to negotiate hard with its allies in Uttar Pradesh. By contesting under the SP’s banner, Congress may be attempting to shield itself from the potential embarrassment of losing under its own symbol, avoiding the direct blame for electoral defeats. The move suggests a pragmatic, albeit disheartening, acceptance of its current political standing in the state. Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh’s Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been a force to reckon with, both in the state and beyond. His 2022 return to power marked a consolidation of the BJP’s grip on the state, even as the SP-Congress alliance gained some ground in the Lok Sabha polls. Yogi’s strong messaging, encapsulated in the slogan “Batenge tho Katenge” (If we divide, we lose), resonates with Hindu voters who may feel alienated by what he terms the “pro-Muslim” stance of opposition parties. This narrative, designed to galvanize Hindu voters, has rattled the opposition and forced them to present a united front, even as ideological and electoral fissures remain. The SP, traditionally a party built on the Yadav-Muslim vote bank, has faced its own challenges in maintaining cohesion among its core voter base. The Yadav community, once solidly behind the SP, has shown signs of fragmentation, with some segments drifting away from the party’s leadership. This erosion of support, combined with the Congress’s weakening influence, has created a volatile political environment where no party can afford to alienate any section of the electorate.
The rise of the BJP, with its emphasis on consolidating Hindu votes across caste lines, poses an existential threat to both the SP and Congress. The BJP’s strategy has been to present itself as the protector of Hindu interests against what it portrays as the appeasement of minority communities, particularly Muslims. Yogi Adityanath’s rhetoric and policies have amplified this message, creating a polarizing political atmosphere where identity politics take center stage. As political strategist Prashant Kishore once pointed out, if the BJP manages to secure 50-55% of Hindu votes, it becomes nearly impossible for any opposition alliance to challenge its dominance. This reality has forced Congress into a position where it must play second fiddle to regional players like the SP, in hopes of staying relevant in a landscape that has become increasingly hostile to its brand of politics. Hence, Congress’s decision to contest on the SP’s symbol in the Uttar Pradesh bypolls underscores its political confusion and desperation. Once a dominant force in the state, the party has now been reduced to a supporting role, relying on regional allies to maintain a foothold. Whether this strategy will pay off remains to be seen, but it is clear that Congress’s surrender to the SP in Uttar Pradesh is a reflection of its broader struggle for survival in an evolving political landscape.
