MS Shanker
Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge appears to have conceded defeat even before the first vote is cast in the first phase of Bihar’s assembly elections scheduled for Thursday. Instead of confidently projecting the prospects of the Mahagathbandhan — of which his party is a principal stakeholder — Kharge surprisingly chose to cast doubts over the future of JD(U) leader and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Addressing a rally on Monday, he claimed that the BJP might sideline Nitish after the polls and install Chirag Paswan as Chief Minister, despite Nitish being the NDA’s officially declared face for the top post.
In fact, a leader with a genuine belief in victory would focus on his own alliance, not on imaginary cracks in the opponent’s coalition.
Bihar is not a new territory for Congress analysts or political historians. It is a painful reminder of what the party once was, and what it has now become. After losing power in the early 1990s to Lalu Prasad Yadav, the Congress never recovered its political footprint here. Over time, it was reduced to being a junior partner — even in the opposition space.
Meanwhile, Lalu’s protégé and rival in socialist politics, Nitish Kumar, steadily positioned himself as a governance-first alternative. Despite his infamous flip-flops in alliances — from BJP to RJD-Congress and back — he has retained the Chief Minister’s office for nearly two decades. Ironically, the BJP, which once played second fiddle to JD(U), is today the dominant force in Bihar’s NDA.
In 2020:
- BJP: 74 seats
- RJD: 75 seats
- JD(U): 43 seats
This election, the numbers are expected to shift significantly.
Poll projections:
- BJP: 80–85 seats
- JD(U): 35–45 seats
- Chirag Paswan’s party: 8–15 seats
Together, the NDA is widely expected to return with 130–145 seats, potentially even crossing the 150-mark — a historic high.
By contrast:
- RJD: projected to drop by 10–15 seats
- Congress: reduced to just 6–8 seats
This is the reality Kharge seems to have internalized. The Congress knows that without the RJD touching 100 seats — nearly impossible — the Mahagathbandhan has no path to power.
Tejashwi Yadav entered politics with a promise. But fresh charges in the Railways’ “land-for-jobs” scam — implicating the entire Lalu family — have become a heavy electoral burden. Lalu himself remains tainted by the fodder scam legacy. The electorate may sympathize with his health, but corruption fatigue is real.
Bihar’s voters are now asking:
Should the state risk returning to the chaos of the past?
And on that question, Nitish — despite his alliance acrobatics — still appears less risky than an RJD-led government.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party is being watched closely. His success record as a strategist — from Narendra Modi’s Gujarat campaigns to Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal victory — gives him credibility. His 3000 km padyatra built visibility. Yet:
- Surveys estimate a maximum of 10 seats
- He risks splitting votes mostly harming the Opposition bloc
Thus, he may reshape future electoral math — but not this election’s outcome.
Kharge’s claim — that BJP might install Chirag Paswan as CM — was not merely rhetoric. It reflects:
- A fear of defeat
- An attempt to trigger insecurity within JD(U) voters
- A pre-emptive excuse for Congress’ own poor showing
But this attack lacks teeth. The BJP has invested heavily in stabilizing Bihar politics and will not rashly dethrone Nitish. If Nitish himself decides to step aside post-election — due to age or fatigue — the BJP has seasoned internal options:
- Ravi Shankar Prasad
- Rajiv Pratap Rudy
- Syed Shahnawaz Hussain
Chirag Paswan may well be rewarded, but a Deputy CM role looks more likely as a generational grooming step.
The Congress’s messaging ahead of Phase One isn’t inspiring — it’s explanatory. It sounds like a party already crafting its post-defeat justification narrative:
RJD’s baggage made us lose.
We did our best. The alliance wasn’t strong enough.
A national party reduced to pleading helplessness due to its partner’s corruption — that itself is the most damning story of Bihar 2025.
As polling begins:
- NDA appears comfortably positioned
- BJP holds the real reins of the future leadership
- Congress is fighting for relevance, not victory
Bihar’s electoral dynamic is changing again — but whether Nitish continues or passes the baton, the Congress will remain an observer, not an influencer.
