Bihar never disappoints when it comes to political drama. Caste wars, last-minute alliances, and leaders switching sides faster than cricketers changing jerseys—everything is part of the script. But the 2025 Assembly elections promise something even more entertaining: the Congress-RJD combine campaigning not on jobs, not on development, but on a bizarre slogan— “vote-chori” (vote theft). If this is their grand strategy, the Mahagathbandhan may have already signed its own defeat note.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) was comfortably placed a few months ago. Tejashwi Yadav, young and energetic, still had some goodwill from his promises of jobs in 2020. But then he shook hands with the Congress—a party that can barely win a cricket team’s worth of seats in Bihar—and bought wholesale the ‘vote-chori’ theory. Add to it the Congress’s distasteful personal attacks on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s late mother, and what do you get? An alliance that looks more desperate than determined.
If you believe pre-poll surveys, RJD’s tally could shrink from 75 seats in 2020 to barely 52–54 now. Congress, true to tradition, may collapse further to 10, down from 19. In other words, Mahagathbandhan is losing faster than Tejashwi can pronounce “social justice.”
And then, of course, there’s Nitish Kumar—the original political gymnast. Since 2020, he’s hopped between NDA and Mahagathbandhan twice, earning the affectionate title “Paltu Ram.” His credibility may be in tatters, but the man refuses to fade away.
Surveys suggest JD(U) could shrink to just 29–31 seats, but those still matter. Nitish has lost his bargaining chip, though. With the BJP set to touch 80–90 seats on its own, the days of Nitish holding Delhi hostage are over. He’ll likely get to keep the Chief Minister’s chair only as long as the BJP allows it—think of it as a rented accommodation, not ownership.
Let’s not kid ourselves—Bihar’s 2025 election isn’t about Nitish or Tejashwi. It’s about Narendra Modi. The BJP is predicted to climb from 74 seats in 2020 to around 81, with a clear advantage in another 15–20 constituencies. That alone makes them the single-largest party.
The NDA as a whole looks comfortable with around 136 seats, well past the halfway mark of 122. Compare this with the Mahagathbandhan’s 75, and the numbers tell the story. Congress may as well contest from its Delhi headquarters—the result will be the same.
For decades, Bihar was the temple of caste politics. Yadavs for RJD, upper castes for BJP, Kurmis for JD(U)—the script was predictable. But new surveys show a striking shift: over 80% of voters now want politics beyond caste. Jobs and governance dominate the discourse.
Here lies the irony: the youth, who should be RJD’s natural base, don’t trust the Mahagathbandhan enough. They hear “vote-chori” and see excuse-making. They hear “10 lakh jobs” and see an empty slogan. Meanwhile, Modi’s welfare schemes and direct benefit delivery, however modest, carry more credibility than Tejashwi’s big promises.
If one looks closely, the biggest drag on RJD is not Nitish Kumar or even BJP’s charisma—it’s Congress. Contesting 70 seats with a strike rate worse than the Indian tail-enders, Congress pulls the alliance down everywhere. Political strategist JVC Sreeram put it bluntly: “If RJD doesn’t dump Congress in several seats, NDA could go up to 150.”
Tejashwi may not admit it, but the arithmetic is simple—every Congress candidate in Bihar is effectively a vote-giver to BJP.
Will Nitish get another term as CM? Probably, but only on the BJP’s mercy. Will RJD bounce back? Unlikely, unless Tejashwi finds a magic wand and a new slogan. Will Congress matter? That’s like asking if the Titanic’s violinist changed the ship’s fate.
At the end of the day, the 2025 Bihar election is shaping up less as a battle and more as a referendum on Modi’s brand versus an opposition stuck in old clichés. Crying “vote-chori” won’t win elections; it only sounds like an advanced excuse for losing them.
And in Bihar, voters have always been sharper than politicians give them credit for. If the Mahagathbandhan doesn’t wake up fast, the only “theft” they’ll witness is the theft of their remaining relevance.
