The visit of Pakistan’s ISI Chief, Lt. Gen. Asim Malik, to Dhaka, where he conducted multiple meetings in military cantonments, is not just a diplomatic gesture; it’s a signal of deeper machinations that India must not ignore. The evolving dynamics between Bangladesh and Pakistan, especially in the backdrop of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s forced ouster and exile, raise red flags about regional stability and security. The history of Bangladesh’s independence is etched with pain, sacrifice, and India’s pivotal role in its liberation. The 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, spurred by Pakistan’s refusal to acknowledge the electoral mandate of the Awami League, resulted in a brutal crackdown on East Pakistan, known as Operation Searchlight. Millions of refugees fled to India, prompting New Delhi’s decisive intervention. Under Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw’s leadership, the Indian Army supported the Mukti Bahini and ensured Bangladesh’s independence on December 16, 1971. Post-independence, India remained a steadfast ally, committing $220 million in aid (approximately $1.6 billion today) in the first six months alone. The Soviet Union’s support during the war underscored the global dimensions of Bangladesh’s struggle, weakening adversaries like the U.S. and China, who backed Pakistan. However, recent developments indicate a worrying tilt in Bangladesh’s political and military establishment. The ousting of Sheikh Hasina amidst mass protests—allegedly fuelled by elements within the Bangladeshi military and aligned with U.S. deep state actors—signals a potential shift in Dhaka’s foreign policy priorities. With Pakistan’s ISI now actively engaging with Bangladeshi counterparts, there’s a clear attempt to exploit the unrest and forge closer ties aimed at destabilizing India.
Pakistan’s fragile economy and internal chaos have not deterred its intelligence apparatus from pursuing regional mischief. By aligning with disgruntled elements in Bangladesh, Islamabad seeks to reignite old flames of discord. This collaboration could embolden terror networks and anti-India factions in Bangladesh, posing a direct threat to India’s northeastern states, already vulnerable to insurgency and cross-border infiltration. Moreover, Pakistan’s overtures to Dhaka are part of a broader strategy to counter India’s rising global influence. As India emerges as an economic powerhouse and a strategic player on the world stage, adversaries are seeking to undermine its stability through indirect means, including fostering unrest in neighbouring states. The narrative of U.S. deep-state involvement in South Asia’s political upheavals cannot be dismissed outright. From supporting anti-government protests in Bangladesh to leveraging opposition forces in India, there’s a pattern of interference aimed at destabilizing democratically elected governments. The Indian Opposition alliance, led by the Congress party, has not shied away from rhetoric that indirectly aligns with these external agendas. Statements threatening violence if the BJP-led NDA returns to power, coupled with baseless allegations about constitutional changes, reflect a dangerous trend of politicizing national security.
The changing guard in the U.S., with Donald Trump poised to reclaim the presidency, brings a potential recalibration of American foreign policy. Trump’s hardline stance against deep-state actors and his pragmatic approach to international conflicts, evident in his brokering of ceasefires in the Middle East, may extend to South Asia. Whether the U.S. under Trump’s leadership will pressure Bangladesh to restore its democratic government remains to be seen. India, however, cannot rely solely on external interventions. New Delhi must proactively address the emerging threat from the Dhaka-Islamabad axis. Strengthening intelligence-sharing networks, enhancing border security, and diplomatically engaging with Bangladesh to counter Pakistan’s influence are imperative. Simultaneously, India must counter misinformation and opposition narratives that seek to erode public confidence in its leadership. The visit of Pakistan’s ISI chief to Bangladesh is not an isolated event; it is a harbinger of potential regional instability. The collusion of internal and external actors—from rogue elements within Bangladesh to U.S. deep state operatives—poses a multifaceted challenge for India. As the geopolitical chessboard shifts, India must remain vigilant, resilient, and strategic to safeguard its sovereignty and uphold its role as a stabilizing force in South Asia.
