Our Political Desk
As the assembly election process concludes in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana, political observers across the country eagerly await the evening’s exit polls to gauge the outcome. These elections, occurring shortly after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, hold immense significance for both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
With both national parties fighting to maintain or regain political influence, these state elections serve as a litmus test for their strategies and future electoral prospects.
The Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections mark the first since the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A in 2019, which removed the region’s special status and bifurcated the former state into two union territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. Additionally, the constituencies have been restructured through a delimitation process, resulting in an increase in the total assembly seats from 85 to 90. Importantly, several seats have been reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST), which political analysts believe could favour the BJP.
In the last assembly elections in 2014, the BJP secured 25 seats and formed an unlikely coalition government with Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Despite their ideological differences, this coalition aimed to prevent the National Conference (NC) and Congress from taking power. However, the alliance collapsed after three years, paving the way for the current elections.
For the BJP, these elections represent a crucial opportunity to establish itself as the dominant political force in the region. The party’s confidence stems from several key factors, including the abrogation of Article 370, which many in the BJP view as a landmark achievement that further integrated Jammu and Kashmir into the Indian Union. Additionally, the region has seen a significant reduction in incidents of cross-border terrorism and internal unrest, such as stone-pelting, under BJP’s rule. The party’s development push, particularly in infrastructure, adds to its optimism.
On the other hand, the National Conference, a key ally of the Congress within the INDIA alliance, is seeking to regain its foothold in the region. However, the NC has distanced itself from the PDP, whose performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections was dismal. In those elections, the BJP and NC each won two of the five available parliamentary seats, while an independent candidate, Engineer Rashid, claimed the remaining seat by defeating former chief minister Farooq Abdullah.
The elections in Jammu and Kashmir are not just a referendum on local governance but also a broader test of national unity and security policies. The BJP’s hope of forming the first-ever government without a coalition in the state could be pivotal in solidifying its nationalistic agenda. A victory here would signal not just electoral success but also an endorsement of its Kashmir policy and a rebuke to those who criticized the abrogation of Article 370.
In Haryana, the BJP faces an uphill battle to secure a third consecutive term. Anti-incumbency, compounded by the decision to field new candidates in place of established party veterans, poses a significant challenge to the party’s chances. Additionally, the lingering effects of the farmers’ protests against the now-repealed farm laws have dampened the party’s prospects in rural areas.
Despite these hurdles, the BJP leadership remains optimistic. Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh have spearheaded the party’s campaign, confident that they have addressed key concerns such as terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and broader national issues like the Agniveer scheme. Their narrative centers around convincing the electorate that the BJP is the only party capable of ensuring India’s continued development, both economically and strategically.
In contrast, the Congress, under the leadership of former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, is mounting a strong challenge. Hooda’s political experience and his connection with rural voters give the Congress hope of regaining power. The party is also capitalizing on local discontent, including the fallout from the farmers’ protests and the BJP’s perceived neglect of Haryana’s agrarian communities. Notably, wrestler-turned-politician Vinesh Phogat’s entry into Congress has brought additional energy to the campaign, with her popularity among the youth and athletes bolstering the party’s appeal.
These two state elections are more than just local contests; they are a precursor to the larger political battles that will unfold in the coming months. The results of these elections will set the tone for upcoming state assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and several other states. For the BJP, a clear victory in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana could reaffirm its dominance on the national stage and provide the momentum needed to push forward with its ambitious economic and social reforms, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of making India a $3 trillion economy by 2026.
On the flip side, a poor showing by the Congress in these elections could further weaken the INDIA alliance, leading to internal disarray and potential defections. The Congress has struggled to regain its political footing after several electoral defeats, and a failure in these key states may demoralize the party ahead of other major state polls, including Maharashtra which are scheduled this year-end.
While the exit polls set to be released this evening may offer some insight into voter sentiment, they are not always accurate predictors of the final results. However, they do provide an early indication of the public mood. If the exit polls suggest a favorable outcome for the BJP, it could buoy the party’s spirits as it heads into the final phase of the electoral process. Conversely, if the Congress or the National Conference performs better than expected, it could signal a shift in voter preferences, particularly in the wake of recent political developments.
Regardless of the exit poll predictions, the actual results, set to be announced on October 8, will hold the key to the future trajectory of both the BJP and the Congress. As the dust settles, these elections will offer critical lessons for both parties as they prepare for the high-stakes battles that lie ahead in India’s dynamic political landscape.
