Once again, speculation about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s retirement has resurfaced. Opposition leaders such as Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav appear more anxious about Modi’s future than even his party members. Their concern stems from a political reality—they believe their survival hinges on his continued leadership. With the BJP continuing to dominate the national landscape, any indication of Modi stepping down could change the political equation dramatically.
Modi himself set an informal ‘retirement age’ (75 years) for BJP leaders soon after his dominance within the party became unchallenged in 2014-15. This decision led to the sidelining of several senior party leaders, including Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi and LK Advani, both of whom were instrumental in the BJP’s growth over decades. They were placed in the ‘Margdarshak Mandal,’ a supposed advisory body meant to guide the party. However, the actual influence of this body has remained questionable. Many within the Opposition saw this move as a calculated strategy to sideline the party’s veterans and consolidate power under Modi’s leadership.
Advani, in particular, was seen as the architect of the BJP’s rise in the 1990s through the Ram Janmabhoomi movement and his Rath Yatra, which significantly contributed to Hindu polarization and helped the party achieve double-digit representation in Parliament for the first time. Modi’s elevation within the BJP signalled a generational shift, with the party moving away from its traditional power centers toward a more centralized and personality-driven leadership.
BJP’s trajectory changed dramatically under Modi’s leadership. The 2014 general elections saw the party securing a historic 290 seats on its own, with NDA allies pushing the tally to 315. This was the first time since 1984 that a single party had secured an absolute majority. Modi’s promise of economic reforms, national security, and a corruption-free government struck a chord with voters.
In 2019, the BJP further solidified its position, securing 309 seats alone, while NDA’s tally touched nearly 350. The victory was attributed to Modi’s strong leadership, welfare schemes like Ujjwala Yojana and PM Kisan, and a nationalistic wave following the Balakot airstrikes against Pakistan.
However, in the latest general elections, the BJP saw a decline, managing only 240 seats. The drop in numbers was attributed to anti-incumbency, economic challenges, and regional dynamics that saw the resurgence of local parties. Despite this, the return of key allies like TDP and JD(U) ensured Modi’s third consecutive term as Prime Minister, an unprecedented achievement in Indian politics since Jawaharlal Nehru.
Within the BJP, alternative leaders exist, but none match Modi’s mass appeal. Amit Shah, hailed as a master strategist, has been instrumental in the BJP’s electoral victories. However, he lacks Modi’s personal charisma and nationwide voter connect. Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari, though respected, are viewed as support figures rather than potential prime ministerial candidates.
A new contender has emerged in the form of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. He has proven his electoral mettle by securing the BJP’s return to power in India’s most populous state for a second consecutive term. However, his governance style, often described as ‘bulldozer politics’ for its aggressive crackdown on criminal elements, makes him a polarizing figure. While he enjoys strong support among the BJP’s core voter base, his ability to attract a wider, pan-Indian electorate remains uncertain.
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP’s ideological parent, appears in no hurry to replace Modi. Two major ideological goals remain unfinished: One Nation One Election (ONOP) and the Uniform Civil Code (UCC). The BJP has already delivered on key promises, including the abrogation of Article 370, the abolition of Triple Talaq, and amendments to the Waqf Act. However, implementing ONOP and UCC requires strong leadership and political consensus, something that Modi is uniquely positioned to deliver.
RSS insiders believe that any leadership transition should only occur once these two critical reforms are implemented. Additionally, the party is keen on maintaining its dominance in upcoming state elections, which will serve as a litmus test for future leadership prospects.
Sources suggest BJP might push through these two major legislative changes by the end of the year, possibly via a special Parliament session. Further, the party is reportedly considering appointing its first female national president, a move aimed at broadening its appeal.
Another significant factor in the BJP’s long-term strategy is the pending national census. The government is expected to conduct the census in 2025, which could pave the way for an early general election in 2028. If this happens, Modi’s tenure would likely continue until then, ensuring stability within the party and the government.
For now, Narendra Modi’s retirement remains unlikely. With unfinished ideological agendas and the BJP’s electoral prospects still tied to his leadership, he is expected to remain at the helm. His leadership has defined the BJP’s success over the past decade, and any transition will require careful planning.
The Congress and its allies may have to endure more political battles before they see any leadership transition within the BJP. Modi’s continued presence ensures that the party remains a formidable force in Indian politics. In short, Modi is here to stay—at least until the next general elections, whenever they take place.
