The ruling Mahayuti coalition in Maharashtra, which includes the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) splinter group, faces significant internal tensions. As the state heads into assembly elections, ideological differences threaten to break the alliance, possibly leading to its unravelling after the results on November 23.
Ajit Pawar has publicly distanced himself from certain hardline BJP slogans. In an interview with ANI, he criticized the phrase used by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, “Batenge toh katenge” (If we divide, we’ll be cut down). Pawar argued that while such rhetoric may resonate in Uttar Pradesh, it doesn’t align with Maharashtra’s inclusive political culture.
In stark contrast, BJP leader and Maharashtra’s Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis dismissed Pawar’s secular stance, suggesting it reflects a long-standing bias against Hindu-centric politics. This exchange highlights the ideological gulf between Pawar’s faction and the BJP-Shiv Sena, casting doubt on the coalition’s stability.
To manage its differences with Ajit Pawar’s faction, the BJP and Shinde-led Shiv Sena have taken pre-emptive measures. In constituencies where Ajit’s NCP candidates are running, the BJP has fielded its own rebels to counter them. The friction was evident when Pawar chose to nominate former minister Nawab Malik, who faces allegations of underworld connections. The BJP, displeased, announced it would not campaign for Malik, indicating the fragile nature of the alliance.
If reports are to be believed, this election has seen an unprecedented surge in independent candidates, with nearly 7,000 contesting compared to just 3,200 in the 2019 assembly polls. This surge highlights just how unpredictable the Maharashtra assembly elections are likely to be.
Despite their uneasy partnership, the BJP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena are betting on a numbers game to retain power. The BJP plans to contest 148 out of the 288 seats, aiming to secure at least 120-130 seats on its own. This confidence stems from the robust groundwork of its parent body, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and its affiliated organizations, which are working more cohesively than ever to maximize the BJP’s seat tally. Their unrivalled booth management skills further bolster their prospects.
Shinde’s faction is contesting 85 seats, hoping to win 30-40. If successful, they could achieve a simple majority of around 150 seats, potentially allowing them to cut ties with Pawar’s faction post-election.
However, recent Lok Sabha election results have shown cracks in this strategy. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance of the Congress, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP, and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction, dealt a significant blow to the Mahayuti. The BJP-Shinde experiment failed to consolidate Hindu votes, leading to heavy losses in key constituencies.
The BJP is banking on slogans like Modi’s “Ek hai to safe hai” (United, we are safe) and Yogi Adityanath’s “Batenge toh katenge” to galvanize Hindu voters. This strategy has proven effective in regions like Jammu and Haryana. However, Maharashtra’s political landscape is more nuanced, with a mix of pro-Hindu and secular voters. The BJP’s hardline rhetoric may not resonate uniformly across the state.
Adding to the BJP’s woes is Uddhav Thackeray’s recent statement likening himself to Mughal emperor Aurangzeb. This could alienate his core Hindu base, potentially benefiting Shinde’s faction. However, with the BJP and Shinde’s factions clashing in over 50 constituencies, the Hindu vote could split, making the outcome unpredictable.
The Mahayuti government has also tried to secure votes through welfare schemes like the Ladli Behen Yojana, modelled after Madhya Pradesh’s successful program. The scheme provides financial aid to women, which has reportedly been well-received. However, some voters are sceptical, fearing that these benefits may be discontinued post-elections.
Meanwhile, the MVA has made ambitious promises, including a 4% reservation for Muslims, to attract minority votes. Yet, the BJP has countered these offers by emphasizing that religious reservations are unconstitutional, a point reiterated by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. This narrative could consolidate Hindu voters behind the BJP, especially if they perceive the Congress-led MVA as pandering to minority interests.
Political analysts remain divided on the likely outcome. Some pollsters predict an MVA victory based on recent Lok Sabha trends, but similar predictions were proven wrong in states like Haryana, where the BJP won despite unfavourable forecasts.
Support from the All-India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) for the MVA could sway Muslim voters, but it may also trigger counter-polarization among Hindus, benefiting the BJP-Shinde alliance. This dynamic was visible in recent elections in Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh, where promises of freebies and minority reservations led to a backlash among certain voter segments.
The MVA’s campaign promises could face practical challenges if implemented. In Telangana, for instance, the government’s financial strain after promising cash benefits under schemes like Mahalakshmi Yojana has led to protests. Viral videos of women demanding promised payouts have hurt the ruling party’s credibility.
The BJP, by contrast, is emphasizing fiscal responsibility and accusing the Congress of bankrupting states where it recently won. The message is clear: lofty promises without financial backing are unsustainable. This could resonate with voters wary of economic instability.
The fate of the Mahayuti alliance hinges on the election results. If the BJP and Shinde’s faction secure a majority, they may not hesitate to part ways with Ajit Pawar’s NCP. The ideological differences are too vast to sustain a long-term partnership.
However, if the MVA manages to capitalize on its promises and anti-incumbency sentiments, Maharashtra could witness a dramatic political shift. The stakes are high, and the coming days will reveal whether the BJP’s gamble to include Ajit Pawar in its fold was a strategic masterstroke or a costly mistake.
