The response of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to teach Pakistan a lesson is a deviation from his direct-action approach of “Gar mein gus ke mare gein”. This time he has changed his strategy that combines the virtues of both Chanakya and Sun Tzu. The former was a scholar, philosopher, and a royal advisor to Chandragupta Maurya and later, a Chinese military general, strategist, philosopher, and writer who lived during the Eastern Zhou period, more than two thousand years ago. While Chanakya believed in weakening the enemy through disillusionment and demoralization, rather than solely relying on battlefield prowess, Tzu emphasised using diplomacy, alliances, espionage, and psychological warfare to achieve victory without necessarily resorting to direct combat, as stated in his book, The art of war.
Twenty-eight Indian tourists were massacred in Pahalgam in the Kashmir valley last week by Pakistani army-trained terrorists after ascertaining their Hindu identity. The 140-crore population of the country is seething with anger to avenge the deaths of these innocent people. The Prime Minister has promised to hunt down these terrorists and punish their mastermind who is heading the Pakistan army. The entire opposition parties are forced to stand with the Prime Minister as they see it as a political suicide in case they raise any questions at this moment. It is amusing to watch parties like AIMIM and other clerics of their ilk in India who, otherwise, breathe fire against Prime Minister Modi and Hindus, showing their solidarity with black armbands. It is just a matter of time before their true colours start showing up as time passes.
The government initiated several steps as a part of the strategy to punish Pakistan, and the most effective one looks to be to pause the Indus Water Treaty signed by the first Prime Minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru in 1960 to placate Pakistan. The foresight of Modi to use the lopsided Indus Water Treaty as a weapon against our rogue neighbour can be traced back to his 2016 statement when he famously said, Blood and water can’t flow together at the same time while responding to Uri attack in which 18 Indian soldiers were killed. The die was cast for course correction. Nehru made several blunders regarding Pakistan, but the Indus Water Treaty was the biggest, which gave undue advantage to them, harming the interests of India. It’s time to rectify yet another of the many Nehruvian blunders while targeting the source of terrorism in Pakistan.
The people in the country are baying for the blood of the Pakistanis, expecting that the Modi government may either conduct surgical strikes like in the case of Uri and Balakot or declare war. They are impatient and want immediate action. But it looks like the strategy this time is to do something big and more effective and long-lasting. The best thing could be to take out Mullah Asif Muneer, the madrasa-educated Pakistan Army General, the root cause of all terrorism menace, without waging a full-scale war where precious human lives could be lost. It requires a little patience, and as the Défense Minister said that India will choose the time and place of strike as per our convenience. But as time passes, frustrated voices of the opposition parties will start emerging, criticising and taunting the government of their bravado and statements made by the Prime Minister. But all these voices of the usual suspects who always work for the cross-purpose when it comes to national interest should be ignored.
The government actions initiated so far are already showing the desired impact. Amongst the actions taken, pausing the Indus Water Treaty is a master stroke and proving to be the most effective. Denying them water or releasing it uninformed is playing havoc with their psyche. This will likely create chaos in Pakistan and with the ban on trade, will further weaken the already bankrupt country. The successful Indian diplomacy has already isolated Pakistan, and no country is standing in support of them except China which may clandestinely help them with equipment and funds.
The parallel effort of the Indian defense forces on the LOC and the aggressive posturing of the Indian Navy by moving the aircraft carrier INS Vikrant close to the Pakistani coast in the Arabian Sea should continue to put pressure on them. Already, the Baloch Liberation Army and Afghans are fighting and killing Pakistan army personnel in the west and north, demoralising the entire country and its leadership. There is every possibility that Pakistan may crumble under pressure if the fountainhead of terrorism, Mullah Asif Muneer, is either killed or flees. If this happens, then the war is won without fighting. The menace of Pakistan sponsored terrorism can be permanently rooted out if: i) India reclaims its legitimate land of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, ii) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) is returned to Afghanistan, iii) Balochistan becomes an independent country, iv) Sindh Province becomes another independent country and Pakistan is reduced to western pocket of Punjab.
Full-scale wars should be avoided as far as possible, as once started, it has their unpredictable dynamics. Wars hurt a country’s economy, and India is a fast-growing economy, likely to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of this decade. Though there are several economic theories citing WW2 as benefiting the economy, this looks more like a case of broken window fallacy. The Broken Window Fallacy is an economic fallacy that states that destruction, such as breaking a window, can ultimately stimulate the economy!!!
