The ongoing visit of Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to India has clearly unsettled Pakistan’s fragile establishment. Even as the Afghan Minister continues his week-long engagement in New Delhi — now in its fifth day since his arrival on Thursday — Islamabad has responded in the only way it knows: by lashing out at its neighbours. Why this sudden belligerence? The answer lies in Pakistan’s confused attempt to please Washington while clinging to Beijing — and failing both. Ever since President Joe Biden’s chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan’s military establishment has misread every regional turn. It celebrated the American exit as a strategic victory, convinced that its long-nurtured Taliban protégés would grant it control over Kabul. Many Indian defence analysts warned that this would embolden Pakistan to escalate cross-border terrorism. But events proved otherwise. Once in power, the Taliban government refused to take dictation from Islamabad. Afghanistan’s new rulers asserted their independence and even pushed back against Pakistan’s interference. The “strategic depth” Rawalpindi dreamed of turned into a nightmare. Pakistan’s own creation had gone rogue. Its humiliation, however, began much earlier — in 2011 — when U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, deep inside Pakistan’s military zone. That single strike tore apart Pakistan’s biggest lie: that it was a partner in America’s “war on terror.” Since then, the world has viewed it not as a victim but as a sponsor of terrorism. Cut off from Western credibility, Pakistan crawled into China’s embrace. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) became its new lifeline — and leash. Billions in Chinese loans poured in under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, slicing through disputed regions of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Balochistan. The Pakistani elite pocketed commissions; China took control of ports, roads, and resources. Turkey cheered from the sidelines, but when it came to defending Pakistan’s interests, none of these “allies” showed up. When India launched Operation Sindoor 1.0 — a precise, four-day military campaign — Pakistan’s bluster collapsed. Nine terror camps and nearly a dozen airbases were reduced to rubble. India sent an unmistakable message: cross-border terrorism will now invite retribution, not rhetoric. Within days, Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations sought a ceasefire. New Delhi agreed, but with a warning — any repeat of atrocities like the Pahalgam massacre, where 26 civilians were killed, would be treated as an act of war.
As veteran diplomat Deepak Vohra aptly put it, “China is now asking Pakistan — how could you marry us and then go on a honeymoon with the U.S.?” That one line captures Islamabad’s schizophrenic foreign policy — forever chasing the next benefactor, never earning genuine allies. Now, with Donald Trump back in Washington and his “America First” instincts intact, Pakistan is once again trying to sell itself as a strategic asset. It is offering the U.S. access to airbases and mineral-rich areas in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But the Americans and Chinese alike know Pakistan’s real game — rent-seeking diplomacy funded by terror. Neither side trusts a regime that has weaponised deceit for decades. In contrast, India and Afghanistan are rewriting the regional script. New Delhi’s warm reception to the Afghan Foreign Minister signals a new phase of engagement based on mutual respect and security cooperation. For Kabul, India is a trusted partner — known for building roads, schools, and hospitals, not for arming militias. For Pakistan, this growing India-Afghanistan partnership is intolerable. It shatters its illusion of being the “gateway to Central Asia.” But this is a different India — alert, assertive, and unwilling to indulge adventurism. The Modi government has strengthened both its northern and western frontiers, fortified air defences, and enhanced intelligence coordination with regional allies. India’s strategy is no longer reactive; it is pre-emptive. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s internal rot is showing. Recent clashes on the Afghan border reportedly claimed the lives of nearly 60 Pakistani soldiers. This was following, Islamabad bombing Afghan villages, killing innocent civilians — a cowardly act that betrays frustration more than strength. The world is watching. If India were to extend even limited military or logistical support to Afghanistan tomorrow, could the U.S. or China dare to intervene? Unlikely. Both have already witnessed how Indian precision strikes flattened their prized toys — American F-16s and Chinese radars — during Operation Sindoor. Pakistan now faces a stark choice: reform or rupture. It can either coexist as a peaceful neighbour or continue to collapse under the weight of its own deceit. The old strategy of milking superpowers for survival is over. India, through quiet strength and decisive action, has ensured that the regional balance of power has finally shifted — permanently and unmistakably — away from Rawalpindi.
