Global politics has entered a new, volatile chapter where economic decisions have become the most powerful weapons of statecraft. Reports emerging after the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit suggest that India and China, two Asian giants with a long history of rivalry, are now prepared to join hands in imposing 100 percent tariffs on iPhones, striking at the heart of American corporate interests. If true, this move would not only escalate the ongoing trade tussle but also redefine the global economic balance.
The immediate question is: who is punishing whom?
The controversy began with US President Donald Trump’s unilateral tariffs on foreign goods, part of his renewed pledge to “make America great again.” He slapped 150 percent tariffs on Chinese products, only to later climb down to 35 percent after facing pushback at home and abroad. Canada, Germany, and Japan all registered their displeasure, with Japan even pulling out its representative from Washington of further trade negotiations despite being a close US ally in the Indo-Pacific.
India, too, became a target of Trump’s erratic trade crusade. He threatened to penalize New Delhi for continuing to buy discounted Russian oil, accusing India of “funding Moscow’s war on Ukraine.” Trump’s rhetoric turned even sharper after India decisively defeated Pakistan in its Operation Sindoor following the Pahalgam terror attack, destroying multiple terror hubs and air bases. Trump, who had assured Prime Minister Narendra Modi of non-interference in subcontinental disputes, later tried to claim that it was he who “stopped the war.” When India publicly refused to endorse that narrative, Trump’s irritation boiled over into punitive trade actions.
If India and China move ahead with their tariff decision, Apple will be the first casualty. Apple shifted much of its production from China to India over the past three years, motivated by US–China tensions, India’s booming smartphone market, and lucrative government incentives. By 2027, nearly a quarter of the world’s iPhones were projected to be assembled in India.
But the tariff retaliation changes the game. Reports suggest New Delhi may freeze Apple’s new factory projects and stall existing production lines, using the company as leverage against Washington. If India follows through, it would signal that no American corporate giant, however influential, is beyond the reach of geopolitics. Apple’s losses would ripple across the US economy, shaking investor confidence and disrupting supply chains worldwide.
What makes this development extraordinary is the emerging tactical understanding between India and China. Despite bitter border clashes in Galwan and Arunachal Pradesh, the two neighbours have quietly managed their disputes through military disengagement and high-level talks. China, facing a slowdown after pouring billions into its failed Belt and Road projects (especially in Pakistan), appears to have realized that regional peace and cooperation with India are essential for its own recovery.
Closed-door meetings during the SCO summit reportedly focused on energy, trade, and coordinated tariff strategies aimed at countering US pressure. This is not a military alliance, but it represents a pragmatic economic convergence. If India and China—nations with a combined market of 2.8 billion people—decide to align even temporarily, Washington’s ability to play one against the other will dim
For the United States, the stakes are far higher than Apple’s balance sheet. Washington risks losing India’s strategic goodwill at a time when it is already struggling to manage Russia, contain China, and reassure nervous allies in Europe and Asia. By targeting India with punitive tariffs while courting Pakistan’s military establishment, Trump has handed New Delhi every reason to pursue greater economic independence and expand partnerships outside the Western orbit.
India’s foreign policy has long been non-aligned and interest-driven. It will not blindly follow Washington’s lead, especially when its economic rise provides it with leverage. Already, discussions within BRICS Plus are exploring new mechanisms for cross-border currency settlement, potentially undermining the dominance of the US dollar.
Another overlooked dimension of this trade spat is human capital. Indian engineers are the backbone of Silicon Valley. Any escalation that leads to visa restrictions or retaliatory policies will not just affect India but could undermine America’s technological edge itself. By antagonizing both the supplier of talent and the host of vital production hubs, the US risks repeating the mistakes it once made with China—driving a rival into self-reliance while damaging its own global competitiveness.
Unlike Trump’s volatile rhetoric, India has so far chosen restraint. By attending the SCO and strengthening regional partnerships, New Delhi is signalling that it will not be coerced into alignment but will instead pursue a multi-vector foreign policy. The possible tariff retaliation is not just an act of defiance—it is a message that India will protect its interests and can play hardball when provoked.
The SCO summit made one thing clear: the world is no longer unipolar. The US can no longer assume that nations like India will fall in line with its dictates. The 100 percent tariff threat on iPhones represents more than a trade dispute—it symbolizes a broader shift in global order.
- Apple’s massive investments in India are now at risk.
- US–India relations face their most serious test in years.
- India and China’s tactical cooperation weakens US leverage.
- The BRICS Plus initiative may further erode US financial dominance.
In this unfolding scenario, America’s biggest challenge is not tariffs or trade balances. It is its inability to recognize that in today’s world, economic nationalism and regional alliances are rewriting the rules of power.
Trump may believe he is punishing others, but the blowback from his tariff obsession could end up punishing the very country he promised to make great again.
