The verdicts from the recent state assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir have starkly highlighted the flawed reliability of exit polls. Despite the predictions by a prominent national Hindi daily and four other agencies, which claimed a clear majority for the Congress in both states, the final results told a different story. These pollsters’ misplaced confidence left the Congress celebrating prematurely, expecting a sweep in Haryana and a considerable lead in Jammu and Kashmir alongside its ally, the National Conference. However, the BJP’s surprising performance in Haryana and the National Conference’s resurgence in Jammu and Kashmir have exposed a glaring gap between poll predictions and political realities. In Haryana, the exit polls projected a clear Congress victory, predicting that it would secure over 60 seats. The party, buoyed by Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and its focus on issues like unemployment, caste census, and farmers’ distress, believed it had struck a chord with voters. However, the reality proved otherwise. The BJP clinched 50 out of 90 seats, marking its third consecutive term despite facing anti-incumbency factors like the Agnipath scheme controversy, farm laws backlash, and other unmet promises. This significant victory for the BJP, contrary to what the exit polls suggested, highlights the flawed methodology that these agencies seem to be relying on.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the exit polls were equally misleading. While they predicted a substantial seat count for the BJP, the party fell short of its expectations. Nevertheless, it managed to increase its tally from 25 to 29 seats in Jammu, highlighting its continued relevance in the region. Meanwhile, the National Conference (NC), led by Omar Abdullah, made a strong comeback, securing over 40 seats in the valley, where the Muslim population forms the predominant voter base, with its ally Congress bagging a few more. Contrary to the exit polls’ predictions, the NC-Congress alliance now appears poised to form the government in the region, indicating a return to traditional political alignments. These recent inaccuracies bring to light a fundamental question: How reliable are exit polls, and do they truly reflect the will of the people? Exit polls, by nature, are speculative. They rely on voters revealing their choices immediately after casting their ballots, an assumption fraught with problems. There is no obligation for voters to disclose their vote, and often, they may choose not to, preserving the secrecy of the ballot. In the past, exit polls were conducted by seasoned analysts who employed sound methodologies, producing results that were often close to the actual outcomes. However, today’s pollsters appear increasingly compromised, influenced by ideological biases and financial incentives.
Modern exit polls seem more like a guessing game than a scientific exercise. The influence of money and ideological leanings has led to a manipulation of polling data, where projections are skewed to favour particular political parties. This trend raises serious ethical concerns. Pollsters often conduct their surveys hastily, collecting data from a limited number of constituencies and ignoring late-voters who might significantly influence the outcome. Their rush to deliver results for television broadcasts immediately after the polls close leads to flawed analysis, missing crucial data that could alter the prediction significantly. Moreover, the Election Commission’s regulations have imposed restrictions on exit polls, mandating that they can only be released after the final phase of voting is completed if elections are held on multiple dates. Despite these measures, the integrity of exit polls remains questionable, as pollsters seem unable or unwilling to provide unbiased assessments. Their projections are frequently off the mark, leading to misinformed public perceptions and misleading narratives that can influence voter sentiment in subsequent elections. Given these inconsistencies, it’s time to question the credibility and necessity of exit polls. These so-called experts often do more harm than good, distorting the democratic process with flawed projections and biased interpretations. The Election Commission of India should consider imposing stricter regulations or even a blanket ban on these unreliable practices. Alternatively, pollsters should voluntarily opt out of this futile exercise unless they can guarantee transparency and accountability in their methodologies. Exit polls, in their current form, are doing a disservice to the Indian electorate. Their inaccuracy and bias undermine the democratic process, creating confusion and misplaced confidence among political parties. Until pollsters can commit to ethical practices and reliable data analysis, it’s high time we demand that exit polls exit the political arena, making way for a more credible and fact-based approach to election forecasting.
