India’s geography, history, and politics are incredibly complex to understand. Geography is mostly reviewed cursorily. Even many overlook the course of the past 8000-year history, and how it influences the current and future course. Most importantly understanding the ramifications of strategic security challenges is myopic. No wonder, the internal crisis explosion is real with external elements seeking opportunities to break up modern India – Islamic Caliphates in various parts.
Geographically, the South Asian subcontinent is divided into various regions and sub-regions. The Great Himalayan Barrier allowed alien hordes to pour across the Khyber and Bolan Passes in the West and Pangsau Pass in the East in search of warmer climates. Add to them, Vasco da Gama opened the gates from the sea in Goa for Western nations to invade and establish their colonies in the subcontinent.
Within the subcontinent, geography isolated and insulated people from each other. All the River Valley systems – the Indus, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the Narmada, the Tapti, the Godavari, the Krishna, the Tungabhadra and Kaveri – did not facilitate cross-fertilization of civilization. The Vindhya mountain range separated the Indus and the Ganges river valley systems from the Deccan Plateau Peninsula. As one observer remarked the Kaveri Delta is the core of Dravidian life, much as the Ganges is of that of the Hindi-speaking peoples. So also, the Brahmaputra valley is the core of Ahom life with inhabitants of hills on either side living in splendid isolation from each other separated by “Waterlines”. During the bygone eras, even the Ganges River valley did not provide enough of a platform for the expansion of a unitary Indian state up to the sub-continent deep, peninsular South. Ipso facto, people of the Ancient Period lacked the resources and will to build political structures for the organization of resources, at least on the scale that the temperate zone Chinese and Europeans did.
With the commissioning of the Pan-India Railways by the British and improved interconnectivity, the slow but steady feeling of the Pan-Indian identity developed, which is yet to consolidate.
Next, knowledge of history by the majority is largely superficial. Major historic Periods and dynasties have been covered in a broad outline of India’s 8000-years history to include: Pre-Vedic Period (6100 to 3102 B.C.); Three Phases of Vedic Period (3100 to 1400 B.C.); Vedanta Jyotish Period (1400 to 1200 B.C.); Magadha Empire (642 to 401 B.C.); Mauryan Empire (321 to 191 B.C.); Shungas (184 to 125 B.C.); Satvahanas (120 B.C.); Kushanas (A.D. 10 to 180); Shakas (A.D. 119 to 348); Guptas (A.D.319 to 467); Pallavas, Chalukyas, Pandyas, Rashtrakutas, Cholas, Yadavas of Deccan and Kakatiyas of South India (A.D.4 to1323); Palas (A.D.750 to 986) and Senas (A.D.118 to 1199) of Bengal; Ahoms of Assam (A.D.1203 to 1833); Sultans of Delhi, Kashmir, Gujarat, Janpur, Malwa, Deccan and Bengal (A.D.1206 to 1526/1589); Vijayanagar Empire (A.D.1339 to 1526); Mughal Empire (A.D.1526 to 1858) and Sultans of Bengal, Kashmir, Gujarat, Berar, Ahmadnagar, Bidar, Bijapur during the Mughal Period; Chatrapati Bhonsles (A.D. 1674 to 1707); Navabs of Bengal, Avad and Arcot, Nizams of Hyderabad; Haidar Ali-Tipu Sultan of Mysore (1761 to 1799); Peshwas, Holkars, Gaikwars, Sindhia’s and Sikhs (1714 to 1849); British East India Company (1774 to 1858); and British India (1858 to 14 August 1947).
Lessons of South Asian history are quite explicit. Ipso facto, the subcontinent’s history is full of wrecked empires especially due to lack of political unity. Kingdoms have sporadically risen here, expanded, and fallen, reshaping with them the region’s culture and uniqueness. And, their integration and unity was a Himalayan challenge in the past that eludes so even today. It was only during Mauryan Dynasty rule – Asoka’s – that India came under a single rule with South Indian kingdoms as vassals. The next historic landmark of a single rule could be credited to the Aurangzeb – Mughal Rule. The credit for restoring to South Asia that it is indeed a subcontinent geographically goes to the British. However, there were over 565 princely states as vassals in the subcontinent at the time of Partition in 1947. These princely states were under the British suzerainty, meaning they had to follow British foreign policy while maintaining internal rule.
Currently, with the democratization of politics, the explosion of information technology, and the liberalization of trade, there is an increasing number of separatist and autonomous demands due to regional, sub-regional, and supra-tribal awakening.
In retrospect, modern India is still undergoing the throes or birth pangs of evolution. Its jigsaw puzzle – full of labyrinthine twists, blind turns, and dead ends – is bizarre. Yet, India is majestically moving ahead at its own elephantine pace. Such is, perhaps, the inexorable course of the subcontinent, or, its curse, like a ship without a rudder tossed around wildly on high seas; sometimes almost appearing to sink; yet somehow remaining afloat.
The root cause for such a perplexing tempest tormenting modern India post-1947 is simple. Demographics have changed from nearly 34 crore (More than 80% Illiterates) at the time of partition to 145 crore (more than 80% literate) as of September 2024 – nearly four times more. Over 17% of the global population is tucked in 2% territory, which is finite only. Natural resources are rapidly dwindling. Galloping corruption is rampant. They are contra national security interests.
Its cumulative fallout is simple – soaring unemployment due to poor quality education and appropriate skill development best suited to high-tech age requirements. Nearly 10 lakh are entering India’s workforce each MONTH. Experts are projecting 28 crore to flood the workforce by 2050. No “Magic Wands” to create government jobs for all.
The common refrain is the rich are becoming richer. Inequality between the rich, the increasing middle class, and the poor is widening. Add to them, poverty in real numbers is almost 30 crore as the population was in 1947 after the partition. The least that one must do is to address the strategic challenge of demographic transitions with the utmost expedition. Lack of political will to do it by all parties out of fear of losing vote banks.
The majority, particularly youth and historically deprived sections of society by accident of birth inhabiting remote rural areas, are frustrated and disenchanted with the slow pace of growth and want an urgent change from the unjust status quo imposed from above by senile and dynastically inherited feudal leadership.
Consequently, there is an upsurge of primordial loyalties. Ethnic churning, especially in the Northeast hill tracts, remains vicious and vexatious. The resurgence of caste and communal polarization is consolidating. Democracy – negotiation, reconciliation, and consensus – remains anathema to our present-day political tribes. Centripetal proactive initiatives are by exception. Therefore, harmony based on unity, freedom, and growth remains a mirage.
Stating the obvious, internal crises are mostly self-perpetrated due to ever increasing political divide especially due to the democratic mess. Understanding fundamentals is critical. Identification of strategic challenges is a vital imperative to gain an “A” perspective at macro-cum-strategic level. Most critical is demographic transitions to include illegal migrations – the mother of all strategic challenges. Following closely behind is corruption – the foster mother of strategic challenges. Add to them, “leadership incompetence/impotence or vacuum”, “Crisis in National Values”, “Religious Conflicts”, “Caste Conundrum”, “Regional/Sub-regional Chauvinism”, “Terrorism to include Islamist Radical Terrorism, Left Wing Extremism, Insurgency in the North Eastern States and, Cross-Border terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir”, “Bureaucratic and Security Forces Overstretch”, “Underground Mafia/gangs” and so on.
The list of operational crises/conflicts includes Kashmir, Manipur, Nagaland, Assam, West Bengal, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Left Extremism, Narcotic menace, financial crimes including money laundering and tax evasion, Cyber Crimes, and maritime security.
No one is prepared to counter the demographic transitions – the mother of all strategic challenges – out of fear of vote bank backlash. So also, to tackle corruption – the foster mother of strategic challenges – with utmost expedition without fear and favor. Also, terrorism, especially Islamist Radical terrorism, lurking all around (sleeper cells) ready to strike at their alien handlers beckoning. Add to it, the caste conundrum politically instigated to consolidate vote banks – the fallout of Divide and Rule strategy.
Of all the strategic challenges and operational conflicts, the most frustrating is to see leaders, out of power, brazenly stir sentiments and arouse emotions of disgruntled sections on sectarian lines to create crises, and launch agitations through protests justifying them in the name of democracy. Invariably, they spin out of control resulting in damage to properties and disturbance to law and order and more bizarre, suicides by students and youth. When riot control measures fail, police open fire to quell mob frenzy resulting in the death of activists bystanders, or innocents. Fringe elements exploit opportunities provided by such developments to polarize different sections of society on confrontational lines. More important, vendetta politics if the culprits of corruption are caught.
In the operational conflicts, Kashmir like Palestine, because of the effect of cyberspace and media, could still fire hatred among millions, putting a solution to its tangle of problems further out of reach. In Manipur, there is a new dimension added with the employment of Drones and Rockets in the 16-month inter-tribal conflict between Meitei and Kuki-Zo. The resolution of the nearly 70-year-old Naga insurgency remains a mirage with insurgents operating openly in towns and villages. And, West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura are sitting on the Muslim-Hindu time bomb that may explode with horrendous fallout. And, the overstretched security forces are at their wits-end to restore peace, harmony, and stability vital for development and growth.
Viewed in a holistic security strategic template, the ongoing fracas based on the British legacy of “Divide and Rule” do not lend hope to achieve the end objective of “Great Power” status in the 21st century. “Knee-jerk, divide and rule, and defensive” strategies can never yield positive results. What is needed is proactive and offensive strategies based on “Unite and Rule” will only pay ultimate dividends, which remains a mirage.
In such a prevailing internal environment, how can one expect the country to transcend from a developing nation to a developed nation and great power? In particular, with leadership inflicted with “I-me-myself-my progeny” syndrome instead of “Service to the Society”.
To sum up, modern India’s graduation from regional to great power status is entrapped by internal seizure from within aided and abetted by external actors. Democracy, most messy due to the “Divide and Rule” strategies of political rivals, does not lend hope for peace and societal harmony vital for development, growth, and progress.
The most critical strategic challenges to overcome include leadership crises; demographic transitions; and galloping corruption. It is only possible by adopting the “Unite and Rule” strategy, which appears a remote prospect. Indian leadership understands the piquant situation but is unwilling to resolve it. The repetition of lessons of history, that is, none learns from its lessons, that is, the disintegration of modern India, appears a distinct prospect.
Sir C V Raman, Nobel Prize Laureate, prophetic remarks are recounted: “We need a spirit of victory, a spirit that would carry us to our rightful place under the sun, a spirit, which will recognize that we, as inheritors of proud civilization, are entitled to a rightful place on this planet. If that indomitable spirit arises nothing can hold us from achieving our rightful destiny.”
