Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to France en route to the U.S. signals a pivotal moment in India’s foreign policy. As Modi engages with President Emmanuel Macron before heading to Washington, where newly re-elected President Donald Trump awaits, the trip presents both opportunities and risks. The outcome of these meetings could shape India’s global positioning, trade partnerships, and security alliances for years to come. France has been a reliable partner for India, particularly in defense and strategic cooperation. With growing concerns over China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific, Modi’s discussions with Macron will likely focus on expanding maritime security cooperation and reinforcing military ties. France’s commitment to India’s Rafale fighter jet program and its support for nuclear energy collaboration underscores a relationship built on trust. A stronger alliance with France will help India diversify its strategic options, reducing dependency on the U.S. and Russia. Modi’s meeting with Trump will be far more unpredictable. While the two leaders enjoyed warm relations during Trump’s first term, his return to the White House introduces uncertainties. Trump’s ‘America First’ policies could complicate India’s trade aspirations, particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals. There’s also the question of H-1B visas, a long-standing concern for Indian professionals, which Trump had previously restricted. If Modi can leverage his personal rapport with Trump, India may secure favourable trade terms and greater cooperation on energy and defense.
)
Both the U.S. and France recognize India as a counterweight to China’s growing influence. Modi’s visit provides an opportunity to push for stronger commitments on Indo-Pacific security, particularly through mechanisms like the Quad (India, U.S., Japan, and Australia). However, Trump’s erratic foreign policy stance may make long-term commitments challenging. If Trump prioritizes a transactional approach over strategic consistency, India could face difficulties in securing a predictable alliance. One of Modi’s key objectives will be to secure investments in critical technology, including AI, semiconductors, and green energy. While France has been a steady investor in India’s infrastructure, Trump’s America may take a harder stance on technology-sharing agreements. India must navigate these negotiations carefully, ensuring access to cutting-edge technology while safeguarding its interests against protectionist policies. Modi’s trip is more than just another diplomatic engagement—it is a high-stakes balancing act between two global powers. While France offers steady and predictable support, Trump’s America presents opportunities laced with uncertainty. The success of this visit will depend on Modi’s ability to secure tangible benefits without overcommitting India to unpredictable alliances. If handled deftly, this trip could reinforce India’s standing as a key player in global geopolitics.