The assembly elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra have concluded, and exit polls have sparked intense political speculation. While BJP’s return in Maharashtra under the Mahayuti alliance seems probable, Jharkhand presents a closer contest. Polls predict a tie at 39 seats each for BJP and its opponents, with smaller parties expected to win the remaining three out of 81 seats. Despite this suspense, BJP appears to have maintained a stronghold in Maharashtra, where its alliance with Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) is poised for a majority, though the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP faces a significant setback. However, exit polls are not definitive, as recent history demonstrates. The Haryana projection during the 2019 assembly elections serves as a cautionary tale, where results diverged from poll predictions. Analysts nonetheless believe the BJP has shown resilience, performing better now than in the Lok Sabha elections, where it struggled in Maharashtra. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), led by Congress, emerged dominant in the state during the general elections, winning 28 of 42 LS seats and delivering a setback to the BJP’s earlier solo majority performances in 2014 and 2019. A key factor in BJP’s national narrative is its ability to counter the opposition bloc INDIA’s messaging. INDIA’s accusations—claiming the BJP could amend the Constitution, withdraw caste-based reservations, and harm minority interests—resonated in parts of the country during the Lok Sabha polls. Yet, the BJP managed to retain power with Narendra Modi at the helm, securing a third consecutive term. Despite INDIA’s improved tally in the Lok Sabha, it fell short of forming a majority.
In contrast, BJP’s messaging in the current elections appears more cohesive and strategic. Modi’s appeal to national unity, encapsulated in the slogan “Ek rahe to safe rahenge” (Unity ensures safety), and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s focus on law and order (“Katenge to bachenenge” or No room for division), has struck a chord. Women voters, too, seem to favour BJP policies, such as the Ladli Behen scheme, which has enhanced the party’s rapport with this key demographic. Jharkhand, where BJP struggled in the last assembly polls with only 25 seats, may see a revival. The party’s campaign focused heavily on issues such as illegal immigration, particularly targeting Bangladeshi migrants. BJP has framed this as a demographic and cultural challenge, accusing migrants of influencing local tribal populations and altering the state’s fabric. This narrative, led by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, seems to have resonated with voters. Meanwhile, BJP’s dominance in Uttar Pradesh continues, with the party projected to win six of nine assembly seats in recent by-elections. This reinforces its foothold in India’s most populous state, a critical factor for any national electoral strategy. While BJP’s performance in these states may signal an upswing, it also underscores the importance of nuanced, state-specific narratives. Whether these trends hold or exit polls miss the mark on November 23, the day of counting, one thing is clear—BJP remains a formidable force, adapting its strategies to resonate with diverse voter bases and shifting political landscapes.
