In a significant diplomatic development, India and China held their first bilateral meeting on Wednesday, since the bloody Galwan Valley clash in Ladakh. Hosted by Russia on the sidelines of a BRICS summit in Kazan, the meeting marked a potential turning point in Indo-China relations, where the two Asian giants seem to be taking cautious but deliberate steps toward de-escalation and cooperation. The efforts of Russian President Vladimir Putin, behind this crucial figure in bringing these nations together, cannot be ignored. His mediating role is intertwined with Russia’s gratitude toward India for its support during the Ukraine conflict. When the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out over a year ago, India—led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi—made a bold foreign policy decision that set it apart from many of its Western allies. Defying U.S. pressure to impose sanctions on Russia, India continued to import crude oil from its long-time partner, prioritizing its national energy needs over international political pressures. Modi’s decision proved pivotal not only for India’s energy security but also for Russia’s economy, which faced potential collapse under Western sanctions. Contrary to concerns that this might strain Indo-U.S. relations, the move did not provoke the kind of backlash that many anticipated. The United States, for reasons best known to its leadership, chose not to impose heavy sanctions on India, further solidifying Modi’s reputation as a leader capable of maintaining diplomatic balance between global powers.
Against this backdrop of strong Indo-Russian ties, the meeting between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping gains added significance. Modi, with his characteristic straightforwardness, emphasized that future relations between India and China must be based on “mutual trust and cooperation.” His stance was clear: while India is open to enhancing trade relations, the border issues that have long plagued the two countries must be addressed with an “open mind” for constructive dialogue. For Xi Jinping, this meeting came after China’s embarrassing military setbacks at the Galwan Valley and, later, along the Arunachal Pradesh border. India’s response to Chinese incursions was firm and resolute, signalling to China that the old dynamics had changed. Modi’s leadership presented a new challenge to China’s expansionist ambitions, a challenge that Xi could no longer afford to ignore. It is no surprise then that on the eve of the BRICS summit, Xi agreed to an MoU for troop de-escalation in Ladakh and joint border patrols—a major step toward reducing tensions along the sensitive border. Despite this positive development, skeptics remain, particularly within India’s political opposition. Members of the Congress party, still smarting from successive electoral defeats, were quick to cast doubt on China’s intentions. The Congress party’s own dealings with China have not been without controversy. In 2008, during the Beijing Olympics, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi signed an undisclosed agreement with the Chinese Communist Party, a deal that remains shrouded in secrecy and has drawn suspicion ever since. This historical baggage adds an extra layer of complexity to the evolving Indo-China relationship.
For China, India’s rise as a formidable economic and military power has been a bitter pill to swallow. Under Modi’s leadership, India has become the world’s fifth-largest economy, modernized its defense infrastructure, and fortified its borders, especially along its eastern front. China’s long-held desire to keep India economically and militarily subdued has faced a formidable challenge in recent years, and the Galwan incident only underscored this reality. Moreover, India’s successful handling of the COVID-19 pandemic—arguably better than many developed nations, including the U.S.—further strengthened its global standing. India not only ensured the availability of vaccines for its own population but also extended this support to 84 other nations, emerging as a leader in global humanitarian efforts during the crisis. China’s isolation on the global stage has grown in the face of India’s assertive foreign policy. India’s diplomatic efforts have successfully pushed back against China’s ambitions in international forums such as the United Nations General Assembly. While China has occasionally blocked India’s attempts to designate certain terrorists hiding in Pakistan as international terrorists, these are minor victories compared to the broader narrative of China’s waning influence. The recent MoU on joint patrolling in Ladakh signals a shift in China’s approach. It is a concession that reflects both the pressure China faces and its recognition of India’s growing clout. Modi’s remarks during the meeting captured the broader implications: if India and China can collaborate peacefully and productively, they, along with Russia, could reshape BRICS into a powerful global force capable of challenging U.S. dominance and preventing economic coercion by larger powers. This breakthrough, while significant, is only the beginning of a long journey. The road to mutual trust and cooperation between India and China will not be easy, given the deep-rooted historical tensions and strategic mistrust. However, with Russia playing a pivotal role and both nations showing a willingness to engage, the future of Indo-China relations holds promise—one that could redefine the balance of power in Asia and beyond.
