Who’ll Split Whose Votes?

Why Bihar’s Minority Math May Seal NDA’s Fate — Not INDIA’s

As Bihar heads toward its crucial assembly polls, all eyes are on the state’s most unpredictable vote bank — the 18% Muslim electorate. The battle lines are drawn, alliances are firm, and the question echoing through Patna’s humid air is deceptively simple: Who’ll split whose votes this time?

For the ruling NDA, the return to power looks almost like writing on the wall. For the opposition Mahagathbandhan—a disjointed INDIA bloc of convenience—it’s a desperate fight for relevance. And in this fight, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has suddenly become the factor both sides fear but refuse to publicly acknowledge.

In his trademark fiery style, Owaisi recently cornered the INDIA bloc with a pointed question: If you claim to represent minorities, why won’t you project a Muslim Chief Ministerial face? After all, Muslims make up nearly 18% of Bihar’s population—larger than the Yadav community’s 14%—and hold decisive sway in at least 53 of the state’s 243 constituencies.

His appeal to his community not to be swayed by token promises of a Deputy Chief Ministership by the RJD-led alliance has reopened a long-suppressed debate within Bihar’s politics—whether Muslims are partners or pawns in the secular alliance playbook.

According to the 2011 Census, Bihar’s Muslim population is concentrated heavily in seven districts — Kishanganj (68%), Katihar (62%), Araria (41%), Purnea (37%), Darbhanga (23%), East Champaran (22%), and Sitamarhi (21%). Together, these seven districts elect over 50 MLAs, and their collective vote has historically tilted the scales.

• Kishanganj: 4 assembly seats, Muslim population 68%
• Katihar: 7 seats, 62% Muslims
• Araria: 6 seats, 41% Muslims
• Purnea: 7 seats, 37% Muslims
• Darbhanga: 10 seats, 23% Muslims
• East Champaran: 12 seats, 22% Muslims
• Sitamarhi: 7 seats, 21% Muslims

The INDIA bloc knows that without near-total consolidation of Muslim votes, its electoral arithmetic collapses. But Owaisi’s re-entry into the Seemanchal region—his traditional bastion—threatens precisely that.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly polls, the ruling JD(U) fielded 11 Muslim candidates — none won. The BJP, true to its ideological clarity, fielded zero Muslims. The RJD put up 17, of whom eight triumphed. The Congress gave tickets to 10, with four wins. The CPI(ML) and BSP fielded one Muslim each — both won. But the surprise package was AIMIM, which fielded 16 candidates and won five — all from Seemanchal. Ironically, four of those five defected to the RJD soon after, exposing both opportunism and the INDIA bloc’s quiet desperation to absorb any successful Muslim faces, regardless of loyalty.

All major pre-poll surveys — from IANS-Matrize to SPICK Media Network — show the NDA cruising toward a comfortable majority. The combined projections give the NDA between 145 and 160 seats with a 46–49% vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan trails at 75–90 seats, managing 36–41% of votes.

Clearly, the momentum is with the NDA, buoyed by a campaign that frames the election as a stark choice between “trouble-free governance” and a return to jungle raj—a slogan that still resonates deeply in Bihar’s political psyche.

The BJP-JD(U) combine may not be equally matched in terms of charisma or voter enthusiasm, but together they form a formidable arithmetic. Nitish Kumar, despite waning popularity and health concerns, remains the NDA’s most acceptable Chief Ministerial face. The BJP, meanwhile, has played its cards smartly—appeasing Nitish publicly while quietly nurturing Chirag Paswan as a generational alternative for the future.

In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan remains a house divided. The RJD’s dependence on Muslim-Yadav arithmetic is showing fatigue. The Congress has failed to expand beyond symbolic contests. And the Left partners, though loud in rhetoric, remain fringe in reach. Their shared dependence on Muslim consolidation has become their biggest vulnerability — precisely what Owaisi intends to exploit.

If Owaisi’s AIMIM contests a dozen-odd seats, especially in Seemanchal and adjoining regions, even a 2–3% vote swing could derail the INDIA bloc’s calculations in 20-odd constituencies. His presence ensures that the Muslim vote will not be monolithic this time — something that unnerves both Lalu Prasad’s RJD and the Congress, who built their “secular” fortress on that very uniformity.

Owaisi’s critics call him the BJP’s “vote cutter.” His supporters call him the only leader speaking bluntly for Muslim dignity. But either way, his influence could inadvertently help the NDA by fragmenting the minority vote — a classic case of one man’s ambition becoming another bloc’s advantage.

As things stand, Bihar 2025 looks less like a contest and more like a reaffirmation of political fatigue. The electorate seems to prefer predictable governance under Nitish-BJP’s uneasy yet stable partnership over a chaotic INDIA bloc stitched together by opportunism.

So, while the INDIA alliance debates representation, tokenism, and secular symbolism, the NDA quietly consolidates — offering continuity over confusion. And if Owaisi’s AIMIM ends up splitting the minority vote, as trends suggest, the NDA’s return to power may not just be “writing on the wall” — it could well be engraved in stone.