The National Conference (NC) government in Jammu and Kashmir, under the leadership of Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, on Monday passed a resolution in the assembly urging the central government to reconsider its revocation of Article 370. This development came alongside Lt Governor Manoj Sinha’s statement emphasizing the popular demand for restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood. Both statements hold significant weight in the region’s political landscape, but they should be viewed with a nuanced understanding of their limitations and implications. In the wake of the assembly election victory, Omar Abdullah faces a delicate balance between fulfilling electoral promises and acknowledging the constitutional reality. He openly admitted that the revocation of Article 370 is virtually irreversible, given the political strength of the ruling BJP-led government at the Centre, with its secure majority. Abdullah’s resolution, therefore, appears more as a nod to NC supporters than a practical challenge to the central government. It signals solidarity with the sentiment in J&K, yet Abdullah is fully aware that such a demand is unlikely to alter New Delhi’s stance. Lt Governor Sinha’s remark on statehood restoration adds another layer to this issue, potentially placating local concerns over J&K’s status. His statement also seems timed to quell fears amid rising violence across the region. However, with increasing security concerns and sporadic incidents of terrorism stretching from the border to urban areas like Srinagar, the restoration of statehood may face further delays. The central government, wary of security risks, may use these incidents to justify postponing such changes.
Critics argue that these moves by Abdullah and Sinha are largely symbolic, aiming to placate different political constituencies without prompting significant policy shifts. The opposition, which shares the NC’s position on Article 370, lacks the numbers to push for change in the short term. And with the next general elections years away, the NC and its allies may have to wait until 2029 for even a chance at federal influence. Some speculate about whether non-BJP states, especially those led by the Congress and its INDIA bloc allies, might rally around J&K’s cause. Yet, the likelihood is slim. Political survival often trumps solidarity, and these states, wary of national backlash, are unlikely to risk endorsing a contentious issue like Article 370. Leaders in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal understand that taking a bold stand on Article 370 might compromise their own regional support bases and be seen as undermining national integrity. For now, the resolution on Article 370 and the call for statehood are rhetorical tools rather than catalysts for immediate change. The Modi government remains firm, and the regional resolution alone lacks the influence to sway policy. Despite local sentiment and political maneuvering, a reversal on Article 370 or the reinstatement of full statehood appears unlikely in the foreseeable future. In this context, the NC’s resolution may resonate with local aspirations but stops short of reshaping the political reality of Jammu and Kashmir.