Southern politics is never short of drama, but the recent churn in Karnataka and Telangana suggests something bigger is at play. For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has already redrawn the political map of India from the Hindi heartland to the far-flung Northeast, the South remains unfinished business. The saffron party has pockets of strength in Karnataka, a growing base in Telangana, and rising ambitions in Tamil Nadu. What was once considered distant territory now looks like fertile ground.
Karnataka was the BJP’s first conquest in the South, a milestone achieved more than a decade ago. It even ruled in alliance with H.D. Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), though that uneasy partnership collapsed under its own contradictions. The fallout allowed Congress to bounce back in 2023 with a comfortable majority, but today that majority feels less like stability and more like quicksand. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is struggling to keep his government afloat—not only against public disillusionment over broken poll guarantees but also against cracks within his own party. He himself admitted that the state budget barely covers welfare promises, leaving little room for developmental activity.
The bigger headache for Siddaramaiah lies within his cabinet. Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar, who as state party chief steered Congress’s campaign, was widely expected to be rewarded with the top job despite money laundering cases pending against him. Instead, the high command handed the baton to Siddaramaiah, projecting him as the cleaner face, though a land scam involving his family has since tarnished that image. Whispers of a secret “2.5-year power-sharing formula” have only fuelled Shivakumar’s restlessness. His supporters, led by senior minister G. Parameshwara, have already tested the waters. Shivkumar even embarrassed the party by publicly singing the RSS prayer song, later apologising but not without sending a message that he, and by extension his camp, could keep options open. Rumours of him moving closer to the BJP have been denied, but Indian politics has taught us that denials often precede announcements.
All of this makes the Congress government in Karnataka fragile. Anti-incumbency is rising fast, particularly among Hindus who deserted the BJP and JD(S.) for Congress’s seductive guarantees, only to discover the promises were unaffordable. Political analysts are almost unanimous that if the Congress house crumbles, the demolition will be carried out by Shivakumar himself. The only unknown is when. In the meantime, the BJP waits and watches, confident that any split in Congress will be to its advantage.
In neighbouring Telangana, the situation is equally delicate, though of a different nature. Revanth Reddy, who led Congress to power last year by dethroning K. Chandrasekhar Rao’s BRS, has a history as colourful as his speeches. He began as an ABVP activist close to the BJP’s ideological fold, shifted to Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, and only later joined Congress for political survival. His hold on power remains tenuous because Telangana is not a two-party contest. Congress, BJP, and BRS are all in play, and the upcoming local body polls will be a crucial test. Revanth’s challenge is twofold—delivering on promises in a state where resources are tight, and defending his turf against a BJP that has made significant inroads. Unlike Karnataka, where Congress governs with a comfortable majority but a divided house, Telangana is about keeping the numbers intact in a constantly shifting three-way arena.
What makes both these southern experiments particularly interesting is the shadow of Tamil Nadu. For decades, the Dravidian majors—the DMK and AIADMK—have kept national parties at bay. Yet, if the BJP manages even a modest breakthrough in the 2026 assembly elections, the ripple effect could transform perceptions across the South. A saffron surge in Tamil Nadu would embolden the BJP in Karnataka and Telangana, both of which are already showing cracks in Congress dominance.
The BJP has demonstrated its knack for expanding into difficult terrain before. It had no meaningful presence in the Northeast a decade ago; today it governs or partners in nearly every state there. Odisha, too, has witnessed the saffron footprint expand against odds. The South remains the one region where the BJP is still searching for a decisive breakthrough. But the strategy is familiar: consolidate in one state, leverage momentum in neighbours, and ride defections from a divided opposition.
For Congress, the bigger challenge is not winning elections but holding the fort. Governing with empty coffers in Karnataka, managing restless factions led by leaders like Shivakumar, and delivering results in Telangana without being undercut by the BJP or BRS is a tall order. The problem for Congress is that it often wins through promises but struggles to sustain through performance. For the BJP, the patience game might be enough. A few defections here, a surprise breakthrough in Tamil Nadu there, and the map of southern politics could look very different in the next two years.
Something is definitely brewing in the South. Whether it bubbles over into a BJP surge or simmers into another Congress patch-up depends on how long the ruling party in Karnataka can paper over its divisions, how deftly Revanth Reddy manages Telangana’s balancing act, and whether Tamil Nadu finally yields to the saffron tide. The South has long been the elusive prize, but this time the BJP believes it is only a matter of time.
