With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for the Delhi Assembly elections, the stage is set for an intense political contest. Polling is scheduled for February 5, with counting and results to follow on February 8. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to leverage its momentum from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as it aims to form the next government in Delhi. The party is also buoyed by consecutive victories in the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly elections, adding to its confidence.
Party insiders suggest that each BJP Member of Parliament (MP) has been entrusted with the responsibility of ensuring victories in their respective assembly constituencies, aiming to achieve the crucial halfway mark in the 70-seat assembly.
In the 2020 assembly polls, the AAP secured a landslide victory, winning 62 out of 70 seats with an impressive 53.57% vote share, while the BJP managed to win the remaining 8 seats with a notable 38.51%. The Congress, however, failed to win any seats, garnering only 4% of the vote share. This time, the dynamics could shift, with the figures potentially reversing between the AAP and BJP, while the Congress might only secure a few seats.
The BJP’s strategy is multi-faceted. Each MP is expected to secure wins in at least five of the seven to eight assembly segments within their parliamentary constituency. This effort will be supported by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), known for its organizational strength and grassroots mobilization.
The BJP also plans to leverage the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior Union ministers in its campaign. The party is leaving no stone unturned, especially as the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, face significant challenges to their credibility.
The BJP is set to portray Kejriwal and the AAP as being even more corrupt than the Congress, which previously ruled Delhi. The BJP’s narrative will likely focus on Kejriwal’s perceived betrayal of his initial promise to lead a simple life, contrasting it with allegations of his lavish lifestyle. Reports, including those from the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG), highlighting irregularities in the Delhi government’s excise policy, are expected to feature prominently in the BJP’s campaign. These reports could serve as a political weapon to target Kejriwal and sway even the staunchest AAP supporters.
Prime Minister Modi has already begun setting the tone. At a recent event, he accused Kejriwal of betraying his mentor, Anna Hazare, during the anti-corruption movement. Modi described Kejriwal as one of the most corrupt politicians in India since independence. This accusation is coupled with the claim that Kejriwal, currently on conditional bail, cannot even enter the state secretariat or the Chief Minister’s office due to ongoing investigations into the excise policy scam. The BJP aims to use this as evidence of Kejriwal’s unsuitability to lead.
The BJP’s narrative also targets Kejriwal’s purportedly extravagant lifestyle. The Prime Minister criticized the construction of the “Sheesh Mahal”—a term used for Kejriwal’s new residence—arguing that such expenditures during challenging economic times are inappropriate. Modi assured voters that if the BJP comes to power, it will intensify investigations into the corruption cases against AAP leaders, ensuring they face the full force of the law.
The AAP’s troubles are compounded by its alliance with the Congress under the INDIA bloc. While both parties hope to counter the BJP’s dominance, their combined efforts may be undermined by their trust deficit among voters. The Congress, still tainted by past corruption allegations, is unlikely to significantly benefit from Kejriwal’s legal troubles. Additionally, the INDIA bloc itself faces internal discord, with regional parties questioning Rahul Gandhi’s leadership following a lackluster performance in the Lok Sabha elections.
Despite the challenges posed by a triangular contest involving the BJP, AAP, and Congress, the BJP’s confidence stems from its consistent success in Delhi’s seven Lok Sabha constituencies in 2019 and 2024. The party believes that the combined efforts of its MPs, backed by an aggressive campaign led by Modi and his cabinet, will enable it to cross the 35-seat threshold needed to form a government. The ‘double-engine’ government narrative, emphasizing synergy between the central and state governments, will likely resonate with voters seeking stability and development.
The upcoming Delhi assembly polls promise to be fiercely contested. While the BJP’s well-oiled campaign machinery and the Modi factor give it a clear edge, the AAP’s resilience and the Congress’s attempt at a comeback cannot be underestimated. However, with the AAP’s credibility severely dented and the Congress struggling to regain trust, the BJP appears poised to make significant gains. If successful, it will mark a historic shift in Delhi’s political landscape, ending nearly a decade of AAP’s dominance.
