MS Shanker
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is facing mounting political turbulence following its recent electoral defeat in Delhi. Not only did Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s party fail to retain power, but he also lost his own seat to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the New Delhi constituency. This outcome has emboldened both the BJP and the Congress, with the latter seeing an opportunity to regain lost ground by destabilizing the ruling AAP in Punjab.
AAP, which secured national party status after its sweeping victory in Punjab in 2022, has found itself in a precarious position. Despite being part of the Congress-led INDIA alliance in last year’s Lok Sabha elections, AAP opted to contest the Delhi assembly polls alone. The decision, encouraged by allies like the Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress, was based on doubts about Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. However, the split strategy backfired, with AAP suffering narrow defeats in multiple constituencies.
Now, Congress sees a window of opportunity. Punjab Congress leaders claim that nearly 30 AAP MLAs are in touch with them, hinting at the possibility of a government shake-up. Punjab Congress chief Amarinder Singh Raja Warring has openly suggested that the party could attempt to form a new government, leveraging discontent within AAP’s ranks. This has triggered an emergency meeting called by Kejriwal, bringing Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and other senior party members to Delhi to assess the crisis.
Amidst these developments, the BJP is watching closely. A newly elected BJP MLA from New Delhi has alleged that Kejriwal is considering replacing Bhagwant Mann as Punjab’s Chief Minister in a desperate bid to maintain party unity. Mann, who played a key role in AAP’s Delhi campaign, is already under scrutiny following a controversy where a vehicle with cash and liquor bottles was found near his official residence.
If AAP’s Punjab government crumbles due to defections, it could create instability in the border state, potentially justifying intervention by the BJP-led central government. Speculation is rife that the Centre may invoke Article 356 to impose President’s Rule, preventing Congress from forming a government and paving the way for fresh elections at a more favorable time.
The coming days will be crucial for AAP’s survival in Punjab. If Congress succeeds in poaching AAP MLAs, Kejriwal’s leadership will face its biggest test yet. Any attempt by the BJP to capitalize on the situation through central intervention could further escalate tensions.
For now, the AAP leadership is scrambling to contain the crisis, but the party’s future remains uncertain. Whether Kejriwal can prevent a split and retain control over Punjab will determine if AAP can recover from its worst political setback yet.
