MS Shanker
With the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections just a year away, the state’s political temperature is rising. Historically dominated by Dravidian parties, Tamil Nadu’s political landscape is witnessing shifting dynamics, with the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) facing a potential decline in voter support. Pollsters currently project the DMK’s vote share at 18%, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to secure around 11%, a notable increase compared to previous elections.
A crucial factor in this electoral shift is the potential impact of the recently concluded 45-day-long Maha Kumbh Mela. This grand religious congregation, held after 144 years, reportedly saw over 2.5 crore Hindus from Tamil Nadu participate, cutting across caste divisions. The BJP is keenly eyeing this massive turnout as an opportunity for Hindu consolidation, aiming to capitalize on religious sentiment to bolster its electoral chances in the state.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent visit to Tamil Nadu signaled the BJP’s intent to aggressively expand its influence. The party is expected to leverage the Kumbh Mela’s unifying effect among Tamil Hindus to challenge the DMK’s traditional stronghold. On the other hand, the DMK, realizing the potential threat, is doubling down on its anti-Hindi rhetoric, a historically successful strategy in Tamil Nadu politics. This move comes in the wake of Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin’s controversial remarks likening Sanatana Dharma to diseases like dengue and malaria, which sparked backlash and reportedly alienated sections of the Hindu electorate.
The upcoming 2026 Assembly elections will determine the fate of all 234 constituencies in Tamil Nadu. In the 2021 elections, the DMK secured a resounding victory, winning 133 seats on its own, while its alliance partners helped push the tally to 159. The AIADMK-led NDA, which then included the BJP, managed 75 seats, with AIADMK alone winning 66.
However, current projections indicate a decline in DMK’s vote share despite its alliance with Congress, which has a 9% vote share. The BJP, now in double digits at 11.5%, is witnessing steady growth under the leadership of K. Annamalai. Meanwhile, AIADMK has suffered a significant drop of 7.6%, raising concerns about its standalone viability.
Adding to the complexity is the emergence of actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which has rapidly gained traction since its inception in February 2024. TVK currently enjoys an estimated 35.8% support, though it remains fragmented, with 15.2% of its voters still leaning towards the DMK. Vijay’s call for secularism and people-centric politics, coupled with his ability to draw youth and first-time voters, makes TVK a potential kingmaker in the upcoming elections.
AMMK leader T.T.V. Dhinakaran has urged opposition parties to unite under the NDA umbrella to defeat the DMK in 2026. He has emphasized the need for strategic alliances, cautioning that a divided opposition would only serve to strengthen the DMK. Dhinakaran’s call for unity resonates with the BJP’s push for a broader anti-DMK coalition, but whether AIADMK, BJP, and TVK can come together remains uncertain.
Vijay, for his part, has reaffirmed TVK’s independent aspirations but remains open to power-sharing. His willingness to challenge Tamil Nadu’s entrenched Dravidian politics has sparked speculation about new alliances. TVK’s growing support among Dalits and minority communities makes it an attractive partner for both AIADMK and BJP, potentially reshaping electoral equations.
Political analysts draw parallels with Andhra Pradesh, where the alliance of TDP, Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, and the BJP has created a formidable opposition to the ruling YSR Congress. A similar strategy in Tamil Nadu—uniting AIADMK, TVK, and BJP—could pose a serious challenge to the DMK-Congress alliance.
However, for this strategy to materialize, two key factors must align:
- Vijay’s Decisiveness – TVK must adopt a clear stance on alliances, ensuring that its rising popularity translates into electoral gains rather than mere symbolic appeal.
- AIADMK’s Realignment – With its declining voter base, AIADMK must reconsider its past reluctance to ally closely with the BJP. If it continues to distance itself from the BJP, a fragmented opposition could allow DMK to retain power despite growing dissatisfaction.
While the impact of Hindu unity at the Kumbh Mela remains uncertain, it is undeniably a factor shaping Tamil Nadu’s political discourse. The BJP sees an opportunity for polarization, while the DMK is working to consolidate its traditional voter base. The rise of TVK adds a new dimension to the contest, potentially disrupting conventional power equations.
Ultimately, the outcome of the 2026 elections will depend on how effectively opposition parties can unify against the DMK. If BJP and TVK can forge a credible alliance, Tamil Nadu’s Dravidian bastion may witness an unprecedented political shift. Otherwise, DMK’s strategic maneuvering and alliance arithmetic may yet secure its hold on the state despite anti-incumbency undercurrents.
