Our Political Desk
With the Election Commission’s announcement of upcoming elections schedule in Maharashtra (Oct 20) and Jharkhand (two phases Nov 13 and Nov 20), the political atmosphere is once again charged with anticipation. The counting is scheduled is for November 23.
In the previous election cycle, the BJP, alongside the undivided Shiv Sena, secured a decisive victory, marking their second consecutive term. However, internal discord soon emerged, largely driven by Uddhav Thackeray’s ambition for the Chief Minister’s position, which proved untenable for the BJP.
The fallout led to the Shiv Sena’s alliance with the ideologically diverse Congress and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), creating the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). This coalition, despite Thackeray’s efforts to shift away from the party’s pro-Hindu roots in pursuit of power, faced significant challenges. Rampant corruption and ideological rifts hindered their governance, alienating many within Thackeray’s own party.
The pivotal moment came when Eknath Shinde, a staunch Shiv Sainik and loyalist of party founder Bal Thackeray, broke away from Uddhav’s faction. Shinde garnered support from a majority of MLAs and MPs, successfully retaining the Shiv Sena name for his faction through legal means. He chose not to claim the Chief Minister’s position upon forming a government with the BJP, citing Uddhav’s abandonment of the party’s foundational ideals.
The BJP, shrewd in its strategy, extended the Chief Minister’s post to Shinde, resulting in a government that emerged following the collapse of Uddhav’s coalition after a failed confidence vote. Additionally, Ajit Pawar’s unexpected split from his uncle Sharad Pawar’s NCP to join the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance added another layer of complexity to the political dynamics.
However, the ruling faction, dubbed Mahayuthi, faced significant setbacks in the recent Lok Sabha elections, suffering substantial losses to the opposition. The MVA’s performance raised questions about whether they could replicate their success in the state elections. Meanwhile, the ruling coalition has attempted to course-correct by introducing welfare schemes, but recent events—such as rising lawlessness exemplified by a tragic car-related incident in Pune and the assassination of Ajit Pawar’s ally, Baba Siddiqui—could negatively impact their electoral prospects.
On the flip side, the BJP has found some solace in its strong performance in Haryana and a notable increase in its assembly tally in Jammu and Kashmir. These successes may lend momentum to the Mahayuthi coalition as they prepare for the upcoming elections.
Looking ahead, the BJP is banking on a unified front from its allies, Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, to ensure effective vote transfer. In contrast, the Congress party, which struggled to make significant gains in recent elections, may find itself on the back foot, especially after its disappointing performance in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana.
Additionally, the BJP-led coalition, Mahayuthi, appears to have reached an agreement on seat sharing, with the BJP set to contest 155-160 seats, the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) expected to receive 60-70 seats, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP aiming for around 40-50 seats in the 288-member assembly. In contrast, the MVA partners may struggle to accept Congress’s demand for 100-120 seats and the Shiv Sena’s request for 70-80 seats, leaving the remainder to Sharad Pawar’s NCP.
As for Jharkhand, the BJP is making all-out efforts to bounce back after losing the 2019 assembly polls. In that election, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) led by Hemant Soren emerged as the single largest party, winning 30 of 81 seats. The BJP, which came close with 25 seats, chose to form a government with Congress, which won 16 seats. However, this time around, serious corruption cases against the Chief Minister in a money laundering case—during which he even went to prison before the Lok Sabha polls—have damaged the JMM’s image. Despite obtaining bail to reclaim his position, Hemant Soren faces challenges, including a split in his party, as his own uncle has deserted him to join the BJP.
Furthermore, the BJP benefits from the presence of high-profile campaigners such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, whose involvement could galvanize support for the ruling coalition, strengthening their position as they head into a competitive election season.
As the political landscape in Maharashtra and Jharkhand evolves, both major factions will need to navigate the complexities of their alliances and voter sentiments, making the upcoming elections a critical test for all involved.
