MS Shanker
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leading a coalition government at the Centre for over a decade, has built a reputation as a party perpetually in election mode. No other political entity in India has demonstrated such consistent preparedness. After its recent performances in state elections, political analysts are now speculating whether Delhi is the BJP’s next target as assembly polls are scheduled early next year.
The BJP recently claimed victories in Haryana and Maharashtra but lost to the JMM-Congress alliance in Jharkhand. However, the party seems undeterred by setbacks, including its reduced tally in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where its seat count fell from 305 in 2019 to 240. Recognizing its missteps, the BJP has been quick to recalibrate its strategies, particularly in addressing the overconfidence that proved costly.
In 2024, the party’s slogan “Ab ki baar, chaar sau paar” (This time, we’ll cross 400 seats) failed to resonate with voters. Overreliance on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a perceived lack of engagement with its ideological backbone—the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and its affiliates—widened the gap between the BJP and its grassroots support. This oversight contributed to significant losses in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan.
The RSS, with its network of selfless and disciplined karyakartas, has been instrumental in the BJP’s successes. Following the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP reportedly organized over 600 meetings to strengthen coordination with the RSS and its affiliates. This renewed synergy appears to have helped the party overcome anti-incumbency in Haryana and secure a strong performance in Maharashtra, where the RSS has deep roots.
In Maharashtra, strategic messaging, including polarizing narratives such as “Ek hai toh safe hai” (United we’re safe), coupled with welfare initiatives, seemingly bolstered Hindu consolidation under the BJP. This renewed approach has reignited the BJP-RSS collaboration, which will be critical for future battles.
The focus now shifts to Delhi, a stronghold of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal. Despite ruling for nearly a decade, the AAP’s image has been tarnished by corruption scandals, including the high-profile excise policy case. Kejriwal’s controversial decisions, such as constructing an opulent “Sheesh Mahal” despite earlier promises of austerity, have further dented his credibility.
Kejriwal and his senior aides, including Manish Sisodia and Satyendar Jain, faced legal challenges, with all three-spending time in jail. While Kejriwal is currently out on bail, the conditions of his release forced him to resign as Chief Minister and vacate the Sheesh Mahal. These developments have weakened the AAP’s standing, offering the BJP a strategic opening.
The BJP is unlikely to settle for controlling 21 out of India’s 28 states. For a party that thrives on electoral dominance, Delhi represents a significant prize. Analysts predict an aggressive campaign, leveraging the AAP’s recent controversies and the BJP’s ability to present itself as a credible alternative.
Moreover, the BJP’s established network and renewed collaboration with the RSS give it an edge in Delhi, a city-state where grassroots mobilization is crucial. Modi’s proven ability to galvanize support, combined with targeted messaging, may be the BJP’s blueprint for unseating the AAP.
Despite its strengths, the BJP faces challenges. Delhi has consistently voted for Kejriwal’s governance model, emphasizing education, healthcare, and infrastructure. The BJP will need to address these local priorities while countering the AAP’s narrative. Furthermore, any perception of overreach or polarizing tactics could backfire in a diverse and politically aware electorate like Delhi’s.
The BJP’s relentless focus on elections and its willingness to course-correct after setbacks underline its political agility. With Delhi on the horizon, the party appears poised for another high-stakes battle. Whether it can translate its ambitions into a decisive victory remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the BJP will leave no stone unturned in its pursuit of electoral dominance.
