The assembly election results in Maharashtra and Jharkhand tell a story of contrasting fortunes for the BJP-led coalition. While the party’s dominance in Maharashtra reached unprecedented heights, it failed to prevent the JMM-led alliance from securing a second term in Jharkhand. These outcomes highlight significant trends in voter behaviour and the effectiveness of political narratives in shaping electoral landscapes.
The BJP-led Mahayuti coalition delivered a resounding victory in Maharashtra, securing over 220 plus seats in the 288-member assembly. Central to this success were powerful narratives like “development,” welfare schemes such as Ladli Behna, and polarizing slogans like “Katenge Toh Batenge” (divide to distribute). A crucial factor behind this performance was the role of the RSS and its affiliates, which reportedly held over 60 meetings to iron out differences with the BJP. Unlike the last Lok Sabha elections, where the RSS largely stepped back due to concerns about the BJP’s overconfidence, this time, the organization worked intensively at the grassroots level, ensuring a strong voter turnout in favour of the BJP.
The opposition, however, suffered significant blows. Despite Sharad Pawar’s stature, the NCP achieved a strike rate of only 11.6% in contested seats, underscoring its dwindling influence. The Congress, once a dominant force, managed only 19 seats, falling far short of its projected 100-seat mark. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, which shifted from hardcore Hindutva to a minority-inclusive stance, fared no better. Controversial remarks, such as referring to Mughal emperor Aurangzeb as a cousin, alienated its traditional voter base and further eroded support.
The BJP’s alliance partners played pivotal roles in this victory. Eknath Shinde’s faction of the Shiv Sena, which embraced Hindutva, retained over 50 seats, reaffirming its appeal among voters aligned with Bal Thackeray’s ideology. Ajit Pawar’s breakaway NCP faction bolstered the coalition’s credibility, enabling the BJP-led Mahayuti to present a formidable, united front. Together, these forces relegated their rivals to the political margins, ensuring a historic win for the coalition.
Devendra Fadnavis, a former Chief Minister and a central figure in the BJP’s Maharashtra strategy, has emerged as the coalition’s linchpin. His decision to accept the Deputy Chief Minister role in the past underscored his political acumen and helped consolidate the BJP’s position. With the coalition now commanding a strong mandate, Fadnavis is widely expected to reclaim the Chief Minister’s chair. Political analysts speculate that Fadnavis might have been offered a role in Prime Minister Modi’s cabinet as a recognition of his leadership. However, the BJP leadership appears unwilling to shift him to the Centre, recognizing his pivotal role in Maharashtra politics, reminiscent of Pramod Mahajan’s era.
In Jharkhand, the BJP faced a starkly different reality. Despite an aggressive campaign, the party fell short as the JMM-led alliance secured a second term. The BJP’s attempt to polarize voters around ghusbaitis (illegal Bangladeshi immigrants) resonated in urban areas, just managing to retain 23 of the 27 it won in the last polls. However, this narrative failed to connect with the tribal-majority rural electorate, which remained steadfast in its support for the JMM. The JMM’s grassroots mobilization and focus on tribal issues solidified its base, while the BJP’s emphasis on demographic shifts and illegal migration failed to resonate with voters who prioritized livelihood and welfare over ideological rhetoric.
The two-state elections, along with recent bypolls in several states, reflect mixed fortunes for the BJP but underline Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s enduring appeal. In Maharashtra, his leadership and the party’s welfare schemes were instrumental in the BJP’s triumph. In Jharkhand, however, local dynamics overshadowed the national narrative. Notably, the BJP has begun recovering ground lost in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but the opposition has shown resilience in other regions. The TMC swept all six bypoll seats in West Bengal, while the Congress secured three victories in Karnataka.
As the winter session of Parliament approaches, political dynamics are set to intensify. The Congress, with Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi in the Lok Sabha and Sonia Gandhi in the Rajya Sabha, aims to sharpen its opposition strategy. Meanwhile, the BJP will focus on consolidating its gains and addressing the weaknesses exposed in Jharkhand.
These elections underscore a critical reality: while the BJP remains a dominant force, its continued success hinges on balancing national leadership, local narratives, and coalition management. The recalibration of its relationship with the RSS, which proved instrumental in Maharashtra, offers valuable lessons for the future. As the 2024 general elections approach, the BJP must refine its strategies and adapt to the evolving political landscape to maintain its momentum.
